Western aid and battlefield losses could push Putin to negotiate, ISW says

Olha Hlushchenko - 8 June, 05:22

Vladimir Putin. Photo: Kremlin

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has concluded that sustained Western military aid to Ukraine and significant Russian battlefield losses could challenge Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin’s perspective on the war and compel him to engage in peace negotiations.

Source: ISW

Details: The ISW stated in its report: "Any increased economic pressure against Russia – while a positive policy development – by itself is insufficient to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table or change Putin’s theory of victory." [N.B. Ukrainska Pravda does not recognise Putin as president – ed.]

Analysts emphasised that continued Western military support is crucial for a pressure campaign that could prompt Putin to reassess his strategy. Putin’s theory of victory relies on Russian forces maintaining gradual battlefield advances longer than Ukrainian forces can defend or the West is willing to provide support.

The ISW suggests that Putin’s strategy will likely sustain his reluctance to engage meaningfully with the United States and Ukraine in peace talks. Achieving a peace acceptable to US interests requires prolonged Russian battlefield losses or a significant defeat.

The ISW stressed that US military aid, particularly advanced weapons systems only the United States can provide swiftly and in sufficient quantities, would enable Ukrainian forces to better hold their positions, slow Russian advances and inflict greater losses on Russian forces.

Growing Russian losses, especially if disproportionate to territorial gains, could undermine Putin’s efforts to balance war costs with domestic socio-economic needs and maintain public support, the ISW noted.

Background

On 3 June 2025, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, claimed that "peace talks" with Ukraine in Istanbul were intended to secure "a quick and complete victory of Russia" rather than a "compromise peace".
On 7 June 2025, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that Moscow would not permit Ukraine’s Armed Forces to use a pause in fighting to regroup, insisting that "the root causes of the conflict" must be addressed. These statements remain unverified and reflect Russia’s narrative to avoid genuine negotiations.

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