Over 60% of Ukrainians ready to vote in referendum, many consider "territorial compromises" – poll
A poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) shows that depending on the wording, Ukrainians who plan to vote in a potential referendum would support a peace agreement involving "territorial compromises". However, everything depends on the legitimacy of holding such a referendum.
Source: the poll conducted between 1 and 8 March
Details: The KIIS emphasises the importance of how a question that could be put to a referendum is formulated.
In particular, a referendum question in Ukraine could be worded in a way that emphasises the advantages of a "peace agreement" and softens difficult concessions or does not mention them at all.
The KIIS proposed an experimental version of such a question: "Do you support the establishment of peace by approving a deal with the US and Europe, which includes Ukraine's membership in the EU in 2027, territorial compromises, reliable security guarantees and an economic reconstruction plan?"
In this case, 61% of respondents would vote "yes" and 10% "no" (the rest would either not vote or remain undecided). Among those who would actually come to vote, 86% would support the agreement and 14% would oppose it.
Meanwhile, overall 64% of respondents say they are ready to take part in a referendum.
Quote: "So, it is possible to get a positive result of the referendum with a 'correctly' formulated question. That is, we see that the majority of Ukrainians reject the withdrawal of troops from Donbas in exchange for security guarantees (especially when the guarantees from the US do not look convincing). But if all these points are 'not mentioned' or 'packaged' in nice words and accents, this increases the possibility of obtaining approval at the national referendum."
Details: The sociologists stress that in the current situation there are high risks of manipulation surrounding a referendum: "This should be taken into account by the Ukrainian authorities, the Ukrainian public and Ukraine's Western partners."
In addition, even among those who are categorically against exchanging Donbas for security guarantees, 54% say they would vote "yes" in such a referendum (while only 14% would vote "no").
The sociologists note that the data represent only the population living in territories controlled by the Ukrainian government. Considering that a significant part of the population is abroad and taking into account factors that may reduce willingness to vote, such as security concerns, there is a risk of low turnout and, as a result, a lack of legitimacy.
Ukrainian law requires a minimum turnout of 50% plus one vote.
Even if the legal requirement of 50% plus one vote is met, a relatively low turnout (for example, 52%) could still lead to a situation where the public does not consider the vote legitimate.
The poll was conducted by the KIIS between 1 and 8 March 2026. The institute independently added the question about a possible referendum on a peace agreement.
The research method involved telephone interviews based on a random sample of mobile numbers.
A total of 1,003 respondents aged 18 and over were surveyed in territory controlled by the Ukrainian government.
The margin of error does not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%, 3.5% for indicators close to 25%, 2.5% for indicators close to 10% and 1.8% for indicators close to 5%.
Overall, the KIIS believes the results remain highly representative and allow for a fairly reliable analysis of public attitudes.
Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!