Russia cuts GDP growth forecast to near zero and expects higher inflation

The official forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2026 has been lowered from 1.3% to 0.4%, while projected inflation has been increased from 4% to 5.2%.

Source: Russian state-aligned media outlet Interfax

Details: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the GDP growth forecast for 2026 had been set at 0.4%, while the 2027 forecast now stands at 1.4%.

The previous official forecast by Russia's Ministry of Economic Development, published in September 2025, projected GDP growth of 1.3% in 2026, 2.8% in 2027 and 2.5% in 2028.

Novak attributed the downgrade to Russia's "moderately tight" monetary policy, which he said was prolonging the period of restrained economic growth.

Meanwhile, Russia's inflation forecast for 2026 has been raised to 5.2%, while inflation in 2027 is expected to stand at 4%.

The previous official forecast from September 2025 projected annual inflation of 4% throughout 2026–2028.

Background: The number of loss-making banks in Russia has risen sharply. While there were 34 such banks as of 1 January 2026, the figure had increased to 60 by the beginning of March.

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