Under "fragile peace" conditions, 56% of Ukrainian refugees will remain in Europe – UN

Under a scenario of achieving a "fragile peace with concessions" in the Russo-Ukrainian War this year, over half of the current number of Ukrainian refugees will remain in Europe until the end of 2029.

Source: a report by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as reported by European Pravda

Details: One of the research scenarios models a situation in which Russia retains de facto control over the temporarily occupied territories, the level of investment in Ukrainian government-controlled territories remains at a medium or high level, and temporary protection status for Ukrainian refugees in the EU ends in March 2027.

In this case, it is projected that 2.9 million Ukrainian refugees (56% of their current number) will remain in Europe until at least 2029.

Under the second scenario – the "status quo", meaning the continuation of Russian aggression – 5.16 million Ukrainian refugees (99% of their current number) will stay in Europe until the end of 2029.

Under the third scenario, which envisages a Ukrainian victory with the return of occupied territories by the end of this year, the number of refugees could fall to 32%.

UNHCR underlined that these scenarios are not predictive, and that the research demonstrated how behaviour may change in response to various possible future events, based on a range of data including surveys.

Background:

• The European Commission is discussing options for a unified decision on the status of Ukrainians living in the EU after March 2027 with EU member states, with both full abolition of temporary protection and its extension by a further year remaining under consideration.
• The Temporary Protection Directive, activated in March 2022, gave millions of Ukrainians access to a range of rights in the EU without overburdening the asylum system.
• Originally conceived as a short-term emergency measure, the directive has been extended on multiple occasions. It is currently in force until 4 March 2027.

Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!