Ukrainian intelligence service obtains internal Russian assessment of war losses

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service has obtained new Russian documents assessing their losses from the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reported. The documents contain an internal Russian assessment that Moscow is trying to conceal.

Source: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on X (Twitter)

Quote: "Our Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine has obtained new Russian documents assessing the aggressor state's losses from the war. Importantly, this is specifically a Russian internal assessment – one they are trying to conceal both from the world and from their own domestic audience.

The first major indicator is a reduction in active oil wells. Just a single Russian oil company – and not even the largest one – has already been forced to shut down around 400 wells. Given the specifics of Russian oil production, these are significant losses, as restarting wells in Russia is far more difficult than in other oil-producing countries."

Details: The second indicator is a reduction in oil refining by at least 10% in just a few months this year.

Quote: "We see that our Ukrainian long-range sanctions are truly effective, and we will continue to scale up this line of our active actions."

More details: Zelenskyy said data on Russia's banking crisis also looks "quite convincing". Specifically, 11 financial institutions are preparing for full liquidation because of problems that cannot be solved in any other way, while another eight banks have accumulated critical problems that cannot be covered without external resources.

Quote: "This year's federal budget deficit figures also look encouraging for us, standing at almost US$80 billion by the fifth month of this year, alongside the bankruptcy of a significant number of Russian regional budgets."

Background:

• In April 2026, Russia reduced seaborne exports of petroleum products by 9.8% in daily terms compared with the previous month and by 17% compared with April 2025, to 7.77 million tonnes, after Ukrainian drones struck ports and major oil refineries
• The official forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2026 has been lowered from 1.3% to 0.4%, while projected inflation has been increased from 4% to 5.2%.
• The number of loss-making banks in Russia has risen sharply. While there were 34 such banks as of 1 January 2026, the figure had increased to 60 by the beginning of March.

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