Estonian intelligence: Russia is tightening control over society amid problems, fearing discontent

Estonian intelligence has noted Ukraine's successes in long-range strikes on Russia, which the Ukrainian authorities refer to as "long-range sanctions", and says Russia is tightening its grip on the population amid fears of growing public discontent.

Source: Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Head of the Intelligence Centre of the Estonian Defence Forces, during a briefing at Estonia's Ministry of Defence, as cited by Estonian public broadcaster ERR and reported by European Pravda

Details: Kiviselg noted that growing social tension in Russia, driven by problems that ordinary Russians have begun to experience, could influence September's elections to the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament.

"As a result, a power vertical with increasingly narrow legitimacy will have to resort to ever more totalitarian and increasingly repressive measures to maintain control," the colonel said.

Kiviselg highlighted Ukraine's success in neutralising air defence systems in occupied Crimea and Donetsk Oblast, saying this has given Kyiv greater freedom to conduct strikes in the Sea of Azov area while severely disrupting Russian logistics and effectively halting transit through the sea.

"Ukraine has also significantly increased the risks to Russian operations in the Black Sea, complicating the transport and transit of Russian energy resources, and we expect the consequences for Crimea to become apparent in the coming weeks," Kiviselg stated.

Kiviselg noted that fuel shortages continue to spread across Russia and are deepening with each new Ukrainian strike on fuel and energy facilities.

"The Russian authorities are trying to present these strikes and the resulting fuel shortages as a temporary phenomenon that will pass quickly. However, it should be noted that the damage Ukraine is inflicting is truly large-scale, and its effects will be long-lasting," the colonel said.

He noted that Russian frontline losses have increased over the past week – the daily average rose from 1,100 killed and wounded the previous week to 1,400 this week.

According to Kiviselg, the fiercest fighting continues on the Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk and Lyman fronts. He described Russian claims that Kostiantynivka is under their control as premature and said Ukrainian forces have continued to push Russian troops back in the Oleksandrivka area.

Ukrainian defence force operations are forcing Russia to redeploy reserves to areas where the situation is deteriorating, which may weaken the Russians' ability to respond quickly to changes in the tactical situation on certain sections of the front in the near future, he added.

Background:

• During last week's briefing, Kiviselg noted that Russia is responding to Ukraine's successful strikes by intensifying its information war against the West.
• The director of the US CIA has stated that the average life expectancy of a Russian soldier after arriving at the front in Ukraine is 20-30 minutes.

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