Ukraine cuts grain export forecast for first time due to port blockade: the new figures
Ukraine has cut its grain export forecast for the July-June 2026/27 season by 12% compared with its previous projection.
Source: Taras Vysotskyi, Ukraine's Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, in comments to Reuters
Details: "We are currently targeting 38-40 million tonnes," he said, giving the first official export forecast since Russian attacks escalated in late July.
Before the intensified attacks on ports, the ministry had forecast exports of 43 million tonnes this season.
The ministry's forecast is broadly in line with estimates by analysts at APK-Inform, who on Monday 10 August, cut their export forecast by 8.6% to 39.4 million tonnes due to disruptions to exports.
The estimate included 13.5 million tonnes of wheat, 24 million tonnes of maize and 1.5 million tonnes of barley, the consultancy said in a report.
The lower grain export forecast highlights the damage Russian attacks are inflicting on Ukrainian exports, more than 90% of which are shipped through seaports.
The Agriculture Ministry said on Monday 10 August that disruptions to grain storage could result in a shortage of storage capacity for 11 million tonnes.
Vysotskyi previously said that losses to the agricultural sector resulting from the port blockade could reach US$3 billion.
Background:
- On 23 July, inbound vessel traffic to Ukraine's Black Sea ports was suspended due to the threat of Russian attacks. This followed weeks of aerial attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports.
- Russian forces also attacked a bridge in Maiaky, Odesa Oblast, in an attempt to disrupt exports of Ukrainian grain and other goods via an alternative land corridor used by Ukraine following the suspension of maritime exports.
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