A general in a civilian post: the workaround that will enable Khmara to succeed Fedorov at the Defence Ministry
Editor's note: This article was originally published before the vote on Yevhenii Khmara's appointment. The vote took place on 19 August, and Khmara was appointed Ukraine's defence minister.
On 18 August, the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) returned from its summer recess, opening the new political season. Everyone had hoped that the main personnel issue of recent weeks would finally be resolved that day – the issue that has sparked street protests in many cities across the country.
It concerns the position of defence minister, from which President Zelenskyy recently removed Mykhailo Fedorov, despite resistance and outrage from the public and a significant part of the military.
The main outstanding issue to be decided now appears to have been resolved. Ukrainska Pravda's political sources claim that the new head of the Defence Ministry will be its current acting minister, Yevhenii Khmara.
The day before, on Monday 17 August, coordination meetings were held throughout the day in the office of the Verkhovna Rada speaker. In the afternoon, parliamentary faction leaders joined them, including Batkivshchyna party leader Yuliia Tymoshenko – as focused and composed as her tightly wound signature hairstyle – as well as other representatives of the parliamentary majority.
According to Ukrainska Pravda's sources in the parliamentary leadership, the coordination meeting was long and difficult, but the discussion never reached the point of addressing the appointment issues, only touching on the fact that they needed to be resolved.
Despite this, on Tuesday 18 August, Zelenskyy submitted Khmara and Andrii Sybiha's candidacies to the Verkhovna Rada for the positions of defence and foreign ministers respectively.
Fedorov himself had called the 18th – the day the Verkhovna Rada returned to work – the point after which he would be able to decide on his next steps.
Will Khmara have enough votes in the Rada to be appointed? Will Fedorov's team remain at the Defence Ministry? And what plans does the former minister have? Ukrainska Pravda explores these questions below.
The day the vote could take place
A source in the top ranks of Zelenskyy's Servant of the People faction explained to Ukrainska Pravda that the personnel issue could be put on the agenda at any moment, meaning events could move very quickly.
"We calculated that even if there is a desire to push this whole thing through as quickly as possible, it would still take about an hour and a half to two hours just for the signed documents from Bankova Street [home to the Office of the President] to reach Hrushevskoho Street [the location of the parliament building] and be submitted to the committee," said the source.
"Because, as a statesman of the highest calibre, the parliament's speaker Stefanchuk is categorically opposed to such issues being considered without a committee decision and in violation of procedures. So, on the one hand, this issue could appear at any time. But on the other, it still won't be an instant process. It will take some time and everyone will be able to prepare for the decision-making process."
Most likely, the vote on the candidates for defence and foreign ministers will take place on Wednesday 19 August.
This will give MPs some time, albeit very limited, to discuss and communicate the decision.
In theory, the vote could also be postponed until Thursday. However, recently there has been an effort not to leave personnel issues until the end of the parliamentary week: on Thursdays, MPs are traditionally less disciplined, and quite a few previous votes have failed to take place on that day. The leadership of Servant of the People also insists that the decisions have not yet been finalised.
Will there be enough votes for Khmara?
Ukrainska Pravda's sources in the Rada said that there would be enough votes to appoint Khmara, "with some to spare". MPs had previously prepared an appeal to the president asking him to reinstate Mykhailo Fedorov as defence minister – but only three MPs signed it. This clearly demonstrates that there is no appetite in parliament to fight for Fedorov.
"Even those MPs who previously said they would not vote for anyone have already changed their tune and are now saying they will take part in the vote," an Ukrainska Pravda source said.
Khmara himself has already attended several meetings of the Verkhovna Rada's National Security Committee in his capacity as acting minister. According to Ukrainska Pravda's sources, he is viewed very positively there and considered worthy of becoming defence minister. Some committee members add that, in Khmara's nearly month-long tenure, the Defence Ministry has become more open in its communications and cooperation with them.
Roman Kostenko, secretary of the Verkhovna Rada's National Security Committee, told Ukrainska Pravda that he is ready to support the potential ministerial candidate. He had previously backed the appointments of both Fedorov and Denys Shmyhal.
"First and foremost, I believe that during wartime, the country certainly cannot remain without a defence minister for so long. So we need to appoint one and move forward. I haven't counted the votes, but I think there will definitely be enough. Khmara is a combat officer; he has shown himself to be a patriot and a worthy person. I don't think anyone will oppose his appointment as defence minister. I believe it is a good decision," Kostenko said.
One potential problem with the appointment
There is an important nuance to this story – the issue is now less about who is going to become defence minister and more about finding a formal mechanism that will allow Yevhenii Khmara to be appointed to the role.
Under Ukrainian legislation, the defence minister can only be a civilian – this is designed to ensure democratic control over the army and effective management of finances and decision-making.
Khmara is a serving general in the military, which means he cannot legally become defence minister. There are three ways this appointment could therefore take place:
- either the law is changed to accommodate the new minister
- or Khmara leaves military service
- or he becomes defence minister in violation of the law.
"Davyd [Arakhamiia, leader of the Servant of the People faction in parliament] was running around with this amendment last week – they wanted to change the law so that a serviceman could be defence minister," a source told Ukrainska Pravda. "They tried to find a way to squeeze it in somewhere, but then it all suddenly went quiet, and now no one's talking about any amendment.
"So they have probably found some other solution. Because to suggest that Khmara, who looks like Rambo, would be discharged through a military medical commission would be even more ridiculous than in the case of Zaluzhnyi.
"So, if they are not changing the law and he is not being discharged through a military medical commission, then they will probably simply appoint a general as defence minister under martial law. Why not? Although this still needs to be clarified, because no one has communicated anything to the MPs formally."
Our sources say that Khmara has agreed to leave military service. It is highly likely that he will go to the vote no longer holding the status of a serviceman. Notably, the acting minister had previously been unwilling on principle to be "struck off" military service. However, it now appears that the President's Office has found a way to persuade him after all.
The new minister may receive a "personnel surprise"
Khmara attended one of the sittings of the national security committee, where he presented his plan for the further conduct of the war. There are few details, as the meeting was held behind closed doors. However, sources of Ukrainska Pravda say that there was considerable discussion with his deputies – Mstyslav Banik and Oleksii Vyskub – about procurement matters.
At the sitting, the acting minister introduced all his deputies and explained their respective areas of responsibility. For now, there are no changes in the team – it has remained the same as it was under Fedorov.
"All the deputies joined [the committee meeting], plus there was one deputy, Mykola Shvydkyi, who was appointed already after Khmara took his post [at the Ministry of Defence]," explained Kostenko. "As for whether he's planning to replace any deputies, there has been no mention of that so far. Currently everyone is working in the same way, and in due course he [Khmara] will assess their work and make decisions."
However, Fedorov's team appears to be planning something rather different. UP's sources say that at the Ministry of Defence the majority are in fact in a state of waiting to see what happens after 18 August. As soon as a new defence minister is appointed, part of the team will leave to join Fedorov for whatever he does next.
"So the further question here is how Khmara will move, given he will not have a team and has no one to put in the top positions," a source from Fedorov's team told UP. "I don't think he even has any candidates for the director-level roles. All the deputies, the key managers – that was the best thing Mykhailo could have left for Khmara."
Fedorov met with Khmara immediately after his dismissal in order to hand over his team's strategy. In terms of Khmara's plans, for now he is trying to understand what needs to be improved. The secretary of the national security committee asserted that Khmara will continue to hold the course on areas he considers to be working well.
"Everything that is positive will continue to move forward," said Kostenko. "It would be unfair to take away the good things and say that the previous minister did everything wrong. Of course, Khmara has plenty of his own ideas for development. In some areas they don't align with Fedorov's vision, in others they do, but he sees things differently. So that's the direction we'll take. I think he has enough of his own ideas and experience to bring something new to the Ministry of Defence."
And what about Fedorov?
The sources in the Servant of the People faction surveyed by UP are unified in saying that Mykhailo Fedorov's return to the post of defence minister is impossible for now.
Another source from the presidential faction gave his view of the situation:
"Well, Misha [Fedorov] has now become the leader of the youth and the protests, while we have a team of older people. So I do not think his return to the Ministry of Defence is possible. But at the same time we can't say that all bridges have been burned. It is similar to the situation with Kubrakov. If he does not climb onto the barricades and try to break through walls with his head, then it is entirely possible that some place in the team will be found for him after all. Mykhailo worked with us for a long time. The history of the relationship is long, so it will always be possible to reach an understanding. But this is definitely no longer about the Ministry of Defence."
Oleksandr Kubrakov, referred to by the source above, had been the deputy prime minister for Reconstruction. Following his dismissal and after some time had passed, he was given the post of freelance presidential adviser on infrastructure and engagement with hromadas (administrative units designating a village, several villages, or a town, and their adjacent territories). It is highly doubtful that Fedorov will have any prospect of being appointed to a formal post as an adviser with unclear responsibilities and powers. Moreover, the former defence minister himself does not appear likely to accept such an offer.
Fedorov's team told UP that dialogue with the president has not been active of late. They have also not met in person in recent days. After Fedorov turned down the offer of becoming deputy prime minister, there have been no further offers. Fedorov had previously stated that he would not agree to any other post other than returning as defence minister. He has not changed his position, and the subject of returning to the post has not come up in the dialogue with the president.
The former minister and his team are awaiting the Verkhovna Rada's decision. Should Khmara be appointed, Fedorov's "plan B" will come into effect – he will launch a series of projects, one after another, connected to the war and Ukraine's defence, sources said. In what status and in what sector this will take place is not being disclosed for now.
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And while the country waits to see what the future holds for the Ministry of Defence, it appears there is no suspense here at all – the ending of the story is obvious. The only question is when the vote will take place and which mechanism will be chosen for Khmara's appointment, given his general's rank in the military.
At the conciliation board it was announced that on 18 August the candidates will meet with the factions, and on 19 August the vote on the ministers will be held, MP Yaroslav Zhelezniak reported. This also concerns the submission of Andrii Sybiha's candidacy for the post of foreign minister.
On this matter, according to UP's sources, there are no disputes whatsoever. This appointment is expected to go through very quickly and easily.
Roman Romaniuk, Tetiana Kryvishyn, Natalia Bodnar, UP
Translated by Anna Kybukevych and Anastasiia Lipara
Edited by Shoël Stadlen