European intelligence services expect Russian provocations to intensify

Representatives of the intelligence services of Czechia, Latvia and Sweden expect an increase in Russian sabotage operations in Europe, whilst assessing the likelihood of an invasion of NATO countries differently.

Source: European intelligence representatives in an interview with The Guardian

Details: In separate interviews conducted over the past week in various locations, three heads of European intelligence services shared their perspectives on the potential threat posed by Moscow.

Michal Koudelka, Head of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), believes that Russia could resort to a small-scale invasion of NATO countries or false-flag provocations within the coming months, rather than years.

Koudelka noted that, in addition to increased drone activity, small-scale invasions into the territory of NATO countries bordering Russia could form part of the Kremlin's plans.

"It's possible. It could involve a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign," he said in an interview at the BIS headquarters in Prague.

Koudelka noted that this scenario could play out within "months, not years", but added that "a lot of people are doing everything they can to make sure this doesn't happen".

"We don't see indications of an imminent attack," stated Normunds Mežviets, Head of the Latvian State Security Service (VDD), in an interview at the agency's headquarters in Riga. He acknowledged that there are indications Moscow is preparing for more decisive actions in Europe but noted it remains unclear whether these plans are simply part of a destabilisation strategy.

"It's still an open question if they have direct and concrete plans or if it's just within the context of their overall attempts to spread fear and uncertainty in western society," he said.

As reported by The Guardian, Baltic politicians, who for many years criticised western Europe for its soft stance on Russia, now find themselves in the unusual position of having to urge some western leaders to show restraint in their public statements, fearing that talk of an imminent invasion could harm their societies and economies.

Mežviets noted that, overall, it is positive that western Europe has woken up to the threat posed by Russia.

Koudelka said the Kremlin seeks to exploit vulnerabilities in western societies in order to undermine their support for Ukraine's war effort.

Thomas Nilsson, Head of the Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service, noted that he sees no signs of Moscow's readiness for genuine negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

All three intelligence chiefs stated that, regardless of how events unfold, Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months.

Nilsson called the recent incident involving an explosives-laden drone at Leipzig Airport, which German authorities have linked to Russian intelligence, a "gamechanger". According to Nilsson, behind the recent escalation in Russian sabotage activity lie several goals: to diminish support for Ukraine, sow division within NATO and intimidate the European populace.

Mežviets noted that Russia is transitioning from chaotic acts of sabotage and arson aimed at spreading panic to targeted attacks on specific facilities linked to western support for Ukraine.

Koudelka noted that another consequence of the sabotage campaign is the overstretching of intelligence services' resources, as doubts frequently remain even when incidents are caused by other factors.

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