Russia could export up to 3.5 million tonnes of diesel per month by year-end

Russia could restore diesel exports to levels exceeding those outlined by US President Donald Trump, with exports potentially reaching 3–3.5 million tonnes a month by the end of 2026.

Source: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, as reported by Reuters

Details: On Friday 9 October, Trump said Russia would immediately supply 300,000 tonnes of diesel fuel to the US and global markets, followed by another 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes in December.

According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, which puts daily consumption at around 2.94 million barrels, the October volume of 300,000 tonnes (2.25 million barrels) would be enough to cover less than one day of demand from the US transport sector alone.

"We will see how ​the situation develops further, but Russia has the capacity to increase diesel fuel exports," Novak said on state television channel Rossiya 24.

He said exports could return to pre-"crisis" levels by the end of 2026 and rise to 3-3.5 million tonnes per month.

Despite its own ban on exports until the end of October, Moscow continues to supply diesel under intergovernmental agreements. In particular, Russian diesel exports to Central Asia totalled 427,000 tonnes in September.

Novak also said Russia was already seeing the effect of the agreement on global diesel markets, where prices have fallen by around 5-6%.

He added that US figures putting the value of Russian resources sold to Europe at US$250 billion were significantly understated.

"The figure for the period from 2022 to the present day is US$320.7 billion. This is the volume of energy resources supplied to European Union countries," the Russian deputy prime minister said.

Background:

• On 9 October, Trump said he had had an extremely successful conversation and reached an agreement with Vladimir Putin on lifting sanctions on Russian diesel fuel.
• On 11 October, he claimed that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire.
• As a result, oil prices fell by around US$1.50 per barrel on Monday and by roughly the same amount again on Tuesday.

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