War Speeches: Faceless putin, Fearsome medvedev, and Ukraine Within the 1991 Frontiers

Public Positions of Ukraine and rf about the war (May, 9–15, 2022)

Expectations for putin's sharp statements during the May 9 parade fell short – Russian authorities avoided any public stake-raising in the war on Ukraine. Statements of russian officials showed that the aggressor state still hoped for the new global agreement and searched for leverage for bargaining. In particular, last week, "discussions" started between russian officials and their proxies in the temporarily occupied territories about the future of the Kherson region. Volodymyr Zelensky rejected any need to offer to putin a "face-keeping chance" to end the war. He also confirmed his readiness to talk to russia's leader directly, without any intermediaries or ultimatums.

Foreign and Defense Ministers of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba and Oleksiy Reznikov, summarized the first outcomes of the resistance to the russian aggression. According to Kuleba, in the event of successful Ukrainian response in Donbass, for Ukraine, the picture of victory will present the liberation of all occupied territories, rather than russia's retreat to positions before February, 24. At the same time, Oleksiy Reznikov said that Ukraine was successful in preventing the plans to destroy our state that actually faces a new window of opportunities.

Faceless and reserved putin, fearsome medvedev: signals russia sent to the world

Key expectations about putin's address during the May 9 parade in Moscow fell short, both for international and domestic audiences. While the civilized world anticipated the aggravation of threats and waves with a nuclear "stick", the internal audience wanted to see an image of the future "victory" of russia in the war on Ukraine and explanations of the prospects for the general mobilization of russians. Instead, Putin responded to all these requests with a standard propaganda set of justifications for aggression against Ukraine, without going into the details of the kremlin's further plans.

The russian dictator repeatedly declared that russia had no choice between war and peace, since "preparations" were underway for Ukraine's "punitive" operation in Donbas and Crimea, and that Kyiv claimed a possible "acquisition" of nuclear weapons, and the North Atlantic Alliance began "developing" the territories adjacent to russia. All this, according to Putin, forced russia to give a "warning response" to aggression.

The kremlin's head has already traditionally associated aggression against Ukraine with the alleged attempts of the US to dominate, "humiliating" not only the whole world but also their "satellites". Putin recalled russian initiatives from the late 2021 on new guarantees to global security, through which he tried to redesign the European security architecture on the eve of the beginning of the war against Ukraine.

Putin's "routine" performance testified to the russian dictator's reluctance to repeat the mistake he made at the beginning of the war against Ukraine, when he openly announced all his dreams, plans and expectations for a neighboring independent country and the global security order. Declaring the high standard of his future achievements, vladimir putin faced the impossibility of their full implementation and somehow received an image blow in russia and abroad. The regularity of putin's statements highlighted his resumption of his typical tactics: to under-explain actions and plans and then own the achievements upon their outcome, rejecting personal responsibility for failures.

The reaction of democratic countries to Putin's "festive" statements can be illustrated by the well-formulated phrase of the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic, Petr Fiala. "There is no point in confronting every single lie that was made in moscow, but the speech confirmed the importance of united and proactive effort by the West against the aggressor," Fiala said.

Many Western experts saw putin's fragility in the weakness of his speech but the russian remnants of the democratic (and not so democratic) opposition was dominated by fears of russia's transition to a regime of long-term war. The lack of bright messages from putin may indicate the intention of the russian leader to make a bloody war against Ukraine a common thing for russians, which does not even deserve to be a topic of the domestic political agenda.

During the week, putin's "younger brother," russia's deputy head of the Security Council, dmitry medvedev, repeatedly played the role of a "bad policeman" in their tandem. After putin's "faceless" speech at the moscow parade, medvedev made a number of outrageous statements.

The ex-President of russia announced the consequences of anti-russian sanctions for the West: the destruction of global supply chains and the caused logistics crisis, the energy crisis and rising fuel prices, the full-fledged food crisis and the prospect of famine in some countries, monetary and financial turmoil in some countries and galloping inflation, as well as the beginning of new epidemics associated with the "refusal" of international cooperation in this field or the use of biological weapons. In addition to the financial and economic consequences, medvedev announced the threat of activation of terrorists who will feel the shift of the West's attention to "beef" with russia. He also "warned" about the possibility of the emergence of new regional military conflicts.

These challenges, according to the Deputy Chairman of the russian Security Council, will lead to the destruction of the "American-centric" world and the emergence of a new security architecture where the interests of countries in conflict with the West shall be respected. Earlier in the week, medvedev "warned" about the risks of a direct conflict between russia and NATO as a result of the assistance that the alliance provides to Ukraine. According to the russian official, such a conflict has the potential to evolve into a full-fledged nuclear war.

In medvedev's statements, three main storylines can be distinguished. First of all, these are hints at the possible further aggravation of the situation in the world – in particular, the growth of terrorist threats for countries that have been "distracted" by the conflict with russia. Secondly, through medvedev mouth, the West was repeatedly offered to enter into a dialogue with russia and reach a global agreement to avoid pessimistic developments. Thirdly, the internal audience was explained that by destabilizing and creating problems for the world, russia would still strengthen its position, even if the West refused to take its demands into account.

The issue of Finland and Sweden joining NATO occupied an important place in russian political discourse over the past week, which inevitably related to events in Ukraine. On May 14, the kremlin reported its version of vladimir putin's conversation with Finnish President, Sauli Niinisto. According to the russian press service, there was a frank conversation between the leaders when putin called Finland's decision to join NATO a mistake since there are no threats to its security. According to the russian leader, the change in Finland's foreign policy will negatively affect mutually beneficial russian-Finnish relations.

On the eve of the telephone conversation, putin held a meeting with members of the russian Security Council, when they "exchanged" views on the prospects for Finland and Sweden joining NATO. The kremlin's "calm" tone during the conversation with Sauli Niinisto was later confirmed by him in his remarks to mass media. He said that putin's calm reaction to information about Finland's intentions came as a surprise to him. "However, in security policy, especially in talking to russia, you have to keep in mind that what he said doesn't mean you don't have to keep being on the alert. However, there do not seem to be any immediate problems yet," Sauli Niinisto said.

Despite putin's "calm" conversation with his Finnish counterpart, russia has already demonstrated its attitude towards Finland's future NATO membership. On the eve of the conversation between the leaders of Finland and russia, it became known that the russian Inter RAT stopped the supply of electricity to Finland, which representatives said that such a decision by the russians was "uncritical" for its market. Instead, the russian Foreign Ministry warned Finland about the consequences it will face in case of accession to NATO.

"Russia will be forced to take steps in response to both military-technical and other threats to its national security," the russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said. Russia was more cautious in its threats concerning gas supply to Finland, which possibility was denied by dmitry peskov.

"Everything goes according to plan" or total hopelessness for negotiations: what russians said about the war against Ukraine

Russian statements about the war against Ukraine again testified to the unwillingness of the aggressor state to move to a peaceful settlement and conduct genuine negotiations. In general, there has been little change in the position of russians over the past week. Repetition of the mantra that everything in Ukraine is going according to plan replaces the real negotiations for the russians, and their readiness to agree on the end of the war.

In russia, the efforts of international mediators were quite actively criticized, thus demonstrating a low capacity to address the specific consequences of hostilities. In particular, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of russia, sergey lavrov, advised the UN Secretary-General, Antoni Guterres, to appeal to the Ukrainian side and demand that it "ensure" the withdrawal of the civilian population from the areas of hostilities. He also accused the UN Secretariat and the Secretary-General himself of "missing" the opportunity to achieve a political settlement of the situation in Donbas.

"If the leadership of the Secretariat, after the unanimous approval of the resolution by the Security Council in February 2015, had tried to induce the Ukrainian authorities to fulfill the obligations arising from this document, then we would not have faced those problems that were caused as a result by the Kyiv regime with the urge and open support of the United States and its allies," lavrov openly attacked Guterres who recently had a meeting with putin.

The kremlin's press secretary, dmitry peskov, also tried to diminish the importance of international mediation. He "thanked" Turkey for its efforts but stressed that the negotiations had started without intermediaries and were also continuing without intermediaries, albeit "very slowly and ineffectively."

The kremlin once again accused Ukraine of abandoning the previous agreements reached in Istanbul. "We even managed to reach the required understanding there, which was then disavowed by the Ukrainian side," said peskov. At the same time, as before, the russian press secretary did not deny the possibility of a meeting between Zelensky and putin. According to him, it can only take place after the finalization of the treaty document at the highest level.

"The will of the people" or how the rf prepares the ground for the occupation of the Kherson region

The russian authorities publicly reacted to the statements of their proxies in Kherson about the possibility of joining the new occupied territories to russia. Former MP of Ukraine, Volodymyr Saldo, "appointed" in Kherson as the head of the military occupation administration, stated that there were certain backstage intentions to include Kherson oblast in some common federal formation with Crimea and part of Zaporizhzhya oblast. At the same time, the collaborator said that the simple "accession" of the Kherson region to the Crimea is not in question. The public statement of the representative of the occupation administration was welcomed by russia at the highest level. We can say that the russians have consistently played a pass on the future of the territories seized by force.

"Kherson oblast can make its own decisions, only the Khersoners themselves, it is their right. No one is forcing them, no one is pressing them, it will be their will and their decision. Whatever will it be, we will agree with it," commented valentina matvienko, the head of the Federation Council of russia, to the statement of russian collaborators. putin's press secretary, dmitry peskov, also gave a similar feedback. He stressed that the decision to request from russia to accept the Kherson region as a part of the rf "should be taken by the residents of this region." "Such fateful decisions should have absolutely clear legal basis and justification, and be absolutely legitimate, as it was in the case of Crimea," – said peskov. Certainly, there was no justification for the occupation of Crimea, but peskov's rationale has been made clear. Let's bargain.

Thus, by inspiring the initiative of local occupiers about the "accession" of the Kherson region, russians simultaneously demonstrated their intentions to control the occupied territory and bargain about its further fate.

Jokes about biological weapons in Ukraine

During the week, russian diplomats continued to misinform the world about the deployment of biological weapons on the territory of Ukraine and "conducting biological experiments" on people. The Permanent Representative of the russian federation to the United Nations, vasily nebenzya, repeatedly amused his peculiar audience with a series of findings that, absurdly, now resemble anecdotes. In particular, the russian representative said that fake banknotes infected with the tuberculosis pathogen were distributed among children in the settlement of Luhansk region. According to nebenzya, they idea was that the children touching the money would take food with their hands unwashed. Instead, "inhuman biological tests" were carried out in psychiatric hospital No.1 in the village of Strilechchia in Kharkiv region. In addition, the russian diplomat announced the request of the Ukrainian side to the Turkish manufacturer of drones Baykar Makina to equip the UAV "Bayraktar" with hinged aerosol equipment for the dispersion of biological and chemical substances.

Despite the absurdity of the statements of russian diplomats, we can assume that they still have a grateful audience inside their country and among conspiracy fans abroad. Otherwise, it is very difficult to explain the russians' effort of reproducing blatant nonsense for many months.

What is the vision of victory for Ukraine and what did Macron offer for it?

Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a number of high-profile statements about the course of international negotiations to end the war with russia in an interview with the Italian TV channel Rai 1.

Volodymyr Zelensky said that he was offered to make some concessions to Ukrainian sovereignty in order to help putin save the face. "We are not ready to keep something for someone and lose our territories for it. It seems to me that this is totally unfair," declared President Zelensky.

According to Volodymyr Zelensky, it is unacceptable to look for a way out of the situation for russia instead of solving the problem itself. "We should not look for a way out for russia, and Mr Macron is wasting his time, I believe he has a wonderful experience that until russia itself wants to, until it realizes that it needs something, it will not look for anything, no way out," Zelensky actually commented on the effectiveness of the French leader's diplomatic efforts. Thus, the Ukrainian president continued to pursue a strategy of rather harsh statements about his European colleagues to draw the world's attention to the shortcomings of their policy. Instead, the Macron administration said that the French President "never discussed anything" with putin without President Zelensky's consent and never asked the Ukrainian leader to concede to russia.

The issue of the responsibility of the international community for the events in Ukraine was also raised this week by the Representative of Ukraine to the UN, Sergiy Kyslytsya. "russia's war against Ukraine was the result of the 'irresponsible complacency of the international community' over the past 30 years. russia's actions in Moldova, Georgia and Syria should have raised alarm in the eyes of the international community. But no one responded, giving russia the green light to act the same way in Ukraine," Kyslytsya said.

In the same interview with the Italian TV channel, Volodymyr Zelenskyi again confirmed his readiness to talk to putin, but only to himnalone, without any intermediaries and without any ultimatums. The first step for real negotiations, according to Zelensky, shall be the return of russian troops to the positions from before February 24, 2022. At the same time, the Ukrainian leader stressed that the issue of negotiations with russia is aggravating every day. "When we de-occupy places, we see traces of humiliation, torture, executions, and destruction left by the russian military. It is because of this that the points regarding the possibility of negotiations are complicated," Zelensky explained.

In the context of last week's popular discussions on "saving putin's face", Zelensky shared his vision of the challenges for russia as a result of its war against Ukraine. According to the President of Ukraine, putin already faces the task of preserving the state rather than his face. Zelensky is convinced that the russian leader will no longer be able to "keep" the political momentum.

Another widely discussed interview in the media was that of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, to the Financial Times. The politician said that in the first months of the war, the victory for Ukraine looked like the withdrawal of russian troops to the positions before February 24 and the aggressor's repayment for the losses. After the failure of russia's initial plan and in the event when Ukraine successfully repels the attack in Donbas, the victory for the country will already be about the liberation of all occupied territories. This statement by the Ukrainian Minister sparked much discussion about the prospects and feasibility of further negotiations with russia and the ability of Western partners to support in a consolidated manner Ukraine's plans to liberate all occupied territories, including the Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Luhansk.

The achievements of Ukraine on the war track were summarized by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksii Reznikov. In his opinion, until May 9, russia suffered a strategic defeat – it could not destroy the Ukrainian State by military intervention and shift of power to russian proxies. According to Reznikov, Ukraine reduced the scale of the aggressor state's goals to operational and tactical level, and within a short period of time it has integrated with its defense partners. Within several months, Reznikov sees a new window of opportunity for Ukraine as a result of sanctions pressure on russia and increased foreign assistance to Ukraine.

Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andrii Yermak, continued to publicly promote the sanctions policy against russia and the search for mechanisms to destroy any "bypass" schemes for russian business. In particular, he informed the public about the preparation by the international expert group of recommendations for action in the energy sector, in particular regarding the implementation of the full embargo on russian oil. During the week, the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, and other officials of Ukraine have repeatedly voiced similar demands for sanctions against the energy sector of russia.

The topic of the week for the Ukrainian side was the food security of the country and the world. "Ukraine supplies grain to almost 400 million people on the planet. Blocking exports of Ukrainian agricultural products has already led to an increase in food prices in the world. As a result, this can cause increased hunger and political instability in a number of regions of the world," said President Volodymyr Zelensky. This problem was also actively discussed at the international level. In particular, US President, Joe Biden, said that America and Europe are looking for ways to export food products from Ukraine, which is an important component of price stabilization in the world.

In connection with the Day of Remembrance and Reconciliation, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, made a number of statements and appeals, where he drew analogies between the crimes of the Nazis and the russian armed forces.

In summary, all public statements of Ukraine and russia had no signs of any progress in the negotiations between them and the parties focused on their own, crucially different goals. Ukraine continues to consolidate support for the civilized world and demand the strengthening of sanctions, while russia is engaged in strengthening its own propaganda framework and finding new justifications for its aggression. However, the public statements of the aggressor state indicate that it still hopes to sit down at the negotiating table with the "collective West" and leaves room for maneuver.

Civil Network OPORA developed an online tool "War Speeches" to track the official position and public discourse of the occupying state about the war against Ukraine and forecasts for the future aggressive plans. The monitoring focused on statements and speeches delivered by officials from the occupying state, as well as on official documents of government institutions. In addition to a detailed timeline of public positions presented on the website, we offer weekly analytical conclusions on the key changes in the public rhetoric of the parties to the military confrontation.