Upcoming elections in Germany will impact support for Ukraine
On the 23rd of February the German people will vote in the federal elections, the outcome of these elections will impact not only Germany but also Ukraine. Germany is one of the leading donors to Ukraine.
Germany has allocated more than € 37 Billion in support for Ukraine. According to the latest poll the Union of Christian Democrats CDU/CSU will win the elections, but Pro-Russian parties Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) will gain more votes than ever before.
The outcome of the elections will influence the level of support Ukraine receives in the future.
The traffic light coalition
The new elections are held, because the German traffic light coalition fell last November. The coalition consisted of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), the centre-left Greens and the liberal party Free Democratic Party (FDP). The coalition had internal conflicts regarding economic policies and fell when the party leader Lindner of the FDP was dismissed as Finance Minister.
The traffic light coalition was supportive of Ukraine, but Chancellor Scholz showed less dedication to the Ukrainian cause on some topics compared to other European leaders.
For example, Scholz opposes providing Ukraine with long-range Taurus cruise missiles and the UK and France do provide Ukraine with long range missiles. Furthermore, Scholz was blocking an additional 3M billion support to Ukraine.
New elections: stance on Ukraine and latest poll
The favorite to become the new Chancellor of Germany is the leader of the Christian Democratic CDU Friedrich Merz. His party, with a Pro-Ukrainian stance, will become the biggest player (together with CSU) with 30% of the votes according to the latest poll. Merz wants to provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles, but only after consulting the United States. The CDU is more popular than the SPD, because it has a stricter stance towards immigration, which is one of the main themes of this election.
The Pro-Russian radical right AfD will likely be the second biggest party with around 22% of the votes. The AfD is popular due to its anti-immigration stance.
The popularity of the party is boosted by Elon Musk. Musk said on X that "only the AfD can save Germany". Early January, Elon Musk broadcasted his interview with the party leader Alice Weidel. On 25th of January Musk spoke to the AfD supporters via a video connection during their election campaign launch.

For Ukraine, a large AfD is not desirable due to the Pro-Russian stance of the party. The AfD wants to lift the sanctions against Russia and wants to deepen economic cooperation with Russia. The latter is exemplified by the statements of leader Weidel, who wants to put Nord Stream back in operation to receive Russian gas.
The social democratic SPD is taking a major hit and will return to parliament as the 3rd biggest party. Polls indicate that the SPD will get around 17% of the votes, a huge loss compared to the elections of 2021 where the party received 25.7% of the votes.
The Green party, which is also supportive of Ukraine, is predicted to get 12% of the votes.
The Pro-Russian left conservative BSW is a new party that is likely to enter the national parliament with around 6% of the votes. Its party leader Sahra Wagenknecht opposes supplying arms to Ukraine and proposed a Pro-Russian peace plan.
The liberal FDP and the left wing party The Left are struggling to reach the electoral threshold of 5%.
Outcome
The victory of the Union (CDU/CSU) is likely and the Pro-Russian AfD will come in second place. The mainstream parties do not want to form a coalition with the radical right AfD, but the first breaches in the ‘Brandmauer’ have been spotted.
The ‘Brandmauer' is an agreement that the mainstream parties do not work together in parliament with the AfD. But on January 29th 2025, for the first time in German history, the CDU did work together with the AfD in parliament to pass a new strict migration policy.
The most likely outcome would be a grand coalition between the Union (CDU/CSU) and the SPD. If these parties do not have enough seats in parliament to get a majority, the coalition would need to be extended with the Greens or the FDP. A grand coalition would be a favorable outcome for Ukraine, because this coalition would continue to support Ukraine.
The amount of support for Ukraine might be lower than before, because of the bad state of the German economy which affects the government budget. Recently, parties which are supportive of Ukraine, had trouble coming to an agreement on how to finance an additional aid package for Ukraine.
A positive point from Ukranian perspective is that if Merz becomes the Chancellor, the chance that Germany will supply Ukraine with long range missiles increases. For now, it appears unlikely that the Pro-Russian parties AfD and BSW will join the new government, but their Pro-Russian stance could shape the political discourse on supporting Ukraine.
It is wise to closely monitor the political development in Germany, given the fact that Germany is one of the leading donors to Ukraine and Pro-Russian sentiment is growing within the German society.