At least 2-3 months needed to prepare an attack from Belarus
It will take at least two to three months to form a battlegroup to attack Ukraine from Belarus.
Source: Oleksii Hromov, Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directive of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, during his briefing on 3 November
Quote from Hromov: "At the moment, the movement [of Russian military personnel to Belarus - ed.] is carried out at the expense of the conscripted. Military personnel must be trained for this battlegroup. This is not expected in the coming weeks. We believe that this may not happen earlier than two to three months from now."
Details: Hromov added that Russia is trying to divert Ukraine's attention and force it to withdraw Ukrainian troops from the east and south to the north, to Belarus.
He said that mostly the First Tank Army and the Second Guards Motor Rifle Division units, which are deployed on the main military training grounds of Belarus, are being transferred from Russian territory.
In particular, about 1,500 railway platforms loaded with weapons and military equipment, up to 200 passenger cars and more than 100 freight cars with military equipment were moved during October.
Hromov noted that a "special role" has been assigned to the airbase in Luninets, Brest Oblast, where Iranian-made drones are deployed, as well as a certain number of their operators.
"Our units are ready for any actions of the enemy. The situation is under control and completely stable," Hromov said, adding that currently the movement of equipment and troops to Belarus has no effect on Ukraine.
Background:
- In October, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine reported that Belarus had summoned the Ukrainian ambassador and accused Ukraine of allegedly preparing an attack on the territory of Belarus. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs considers this is possibly part of the Russian provocation plan.
- Arvydas Anušauskas, Minister of Defence of Lithuania, has linked Belarus's accusations of Ukraine's alleged preparation of the attack to a change in Russia's tactics in the full-scale war.
- British intelligence considers a new attack of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus to be unlikely for the time being due to the formation of a joint group of forces there with the Russian Federation.
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