NATO offer strengthening ties with Ukraine as a way to encourage Kyiv to start peace talks with Russia – WSJ

Germany, France and the UK are considering an agreement to give Ukraine much broader access to NATO's advanced military equipment, weapons and ammunition to defend itself once the war ends, but at the same time expects Ukraine to resume peace talks with Russia.

Source: Wall Street Journal, citing French, German and British officials

Details: The agreement envisions cooperation between Ukraine and NATO short of NATO membership, and seeks to secure Kyiv's commitment to start peace talks with Moscow.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was first to lay out a blueprint for the agreement and was later supported by France and Germany. But the three countries are doubtful that Ukraine will be able to expel the Russians from eastern Ukraine and Crimea, and believe that the West can only help sustain the war effort for so long, especially if the conflict settles into a stalemate.

"We keep repeating that Russia mustn't win, but what does that mean? If the war goes on for long enough with this intensity, Ukraine's losses will become unbearable. And no one believes they will be able to retrieve Crimea," a senior French official told WSJ.

According to WSJ, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he needed to start considering peace talks with Moscow when the three leaders met in Paris earlier this month.

Macron told Zelenskyy that even mortal enemies like France and Germany had to make peace after World War II. Macron also said that while Zelenskyy had been a great war leader, he would eventually have to shift into political statesmanship and make difficult decisions.

A British official said another goal of the NATO pact would be to show Moscow that the West is prepared to scale up its military assistance and commitments to Ukraine over time in order to help persuade Moscow that it can't achieve its military objectives. The pact is expected to be on the agenda of NATO's annual meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania in July.

"The NATO summit must produce a clear offer to Ukraine, also to give Zelenskyy a political win that he can present at home as an incentive for negotiations," the British official said. "Russia's wars have a tendency to freeze and then unfreeze, and that is why Ukraine will need more guarantees from us."

NATO decisions are made by consensus, and the pact would have to secure the support of all member states. So far, Central European officials said, the proposal has only been discussed on the margins but they are broadly reluctant to sign off on any long-term NATO status for Ukraine that falls short of full membership in the alliance.

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