ISW: Kremlin prepares Russians for possible protracted conflict with NATO

The Russian authorities are militarising Russian society to justify the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and possibly preparing it for a possible future protracted conflict with NATO.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Quote: "The Kremlin continues to repurpose narratives that Russian officials have repeatedly used to justify Russia's invasions of Ukraine in an effort to further militarise Russian society in the long term, likely in preparation for a potential future protracted conflict with NATO."

Details: On 20 April, pro-Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin asked Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about the EU's recommendation to European leaders to refrain from participating in the 9 May Russian parade in Moscow.

Lavrov accused the EU of fomenting so-called neo-Nazi ideology in Europe and said that Russia "will make every effort to ensure that this ideology does not raise its head" and destroy Nazism "once and for all".

Analysts note that Lavrov's statements are part of the Kremlin's long-standing attempts to invoke the former Soviet Union's contribution to the victory over Nazi Germany and broader myths about the so-called Great Patriotic War [as Russia calls the phase of World War II when the Soviet Union was at war with Nazi Germany, from 1941 to 1945 – ed.] and to vilify Europe and NATO.

ISW analysts believe that these efforts are aimed at exacerbating negative sentiments among the Russian population and attracting support for the militarisation of Russian society in the long term.

The assessment adds that Russian ruler Vladimir Putin and other senior Kremlin officials regularly use the vague term "denazification" to call for regime change in Ukraine and the establishment of a pro-Russian puppet government.

And Putin used the claim that "Nazis" were supposedly controlling the Ukrainian government to justify a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Quote: "The Kremlin is increasingly employing the same playbook that it used against Ukraine towards Finland and former Soviet states, including Estonia and Moldova, to justify its attempts to control independent countries and set informational conditions for possible future Russian aggression."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 20 April:  

• The snap Russian-proposed Easter truce underscores the necessity that the text of any ceasefire or peace agreement be publicly available, formally agreed to in advance by all parties, and include robust monitoring mechanisms.
• Zelenskyy reported that Russian forces did not conduct long-range strikes against Ukraine on the night of 19-20 April and during the day on 20 April and proposed a temporary moratorium on long-range strikes against civilian infrastructure.
• Ukrainian officials continue to highlight Russia's systematic persecution of religious communities throughout occupied Ukraine, including against Christians.
• The Kremlin continues to repurpose narratives that Russian officials have repeatedly used to justify Russia's invasion of Ukraine in an effort to further militarise Russian society in the long term, likely in preparation for a potential future protracted conflict with NATO.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk before the start of the Easter truce.

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