Russia uninterested in compromise, says ISW on Istanbul talks
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has analysed developments surrounding the peace talks in Istanbul, noting that Russia is not pursuing good faith negotiations or compromise and will continue the war in pursuit of Ukraine's capitulation.
Source: ISW
Details: Analysts note that the Russian delegation in Istanbul does not include figures from Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin's inner circle and largely mirrors the team sent to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine talks in the same city.
Putin announced on the evening of 14 May that his aide, Vladimir Medinsky, would lead the Russian delegation to Istanbul.
ISW points out that Medinsky has explicitly referred to the May 2025 Russo-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul as a continuation of the early 2022 negotiations, during which Russia issued demands amounting to Ukraine's complete capitulation.
Analysts add that Russia made these demands during the first and second months of its full-scale invasion, when its forces were advancing on Kyiv and gaining significant ground in Ukraine's northeast, east and south.
Quote: "Russia is now attempting to reiterate these same demands after three years of war, despite the fact that Ukrainian forces have since successfully forced Russia to withdraw from northern Ukraine, liberated significant swaths of territory in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts, and blunted the Russian rate of advance across the theatre.
Medinsky is purposefully attempting to frame the May 2025 talks as a continuation of the April 2022 Istanbul negotiations to portray Russia's demands for Ukraine's surrender as legitimate, despite the fact that Ukraine is now in a much stronger battlefield position on the battlefield than in April 2022 and the Russian military is much weaker than in the early months of the full-scale invasion."
Details: ISW notes that Medinsky’s attempt to present the May 2025 Istanbul negotiations as peace talks contradicts the stated efforts of Ukraine, the US and Europe to establish a long-term ceasefire in Ukraine that would precede peace talks.
Quote: "Medinsky's framing echoes consistent Russian rejections of this sequence of events, which Ukraine and the United States have consistently supported."
Details: Analysts also noted that the Kremlin had issued specific guidelines to Russian media on how to cover the Istanbul talks.
Quote: "The [Russian] Presidential Administration's claim that the May 2025 negotiations are taking place on 'worse terms' for Ukraine compared to 2022 is an attempt to posture Russian military strength and battlefield successes while ignoring Ukraine's significant battlefield successes and ability to slow Russian advances in the last three years of the war
This claim also ignores significant Russian losses among elite forces and increasing reliance on poorly trained recruits.
The Presidential Administration's reported framing of the negotiations demonstrates that Russia expects Ukraine to refuse the terms the Russian delegation will present in Istanbul as Ukraine would not accept terms tantamount to its surrender."
Details: ISW analysts conclude that Russia's continued insistence on its 2022 Istanbul demands in May 2025 shows that it remains focused on Ukraine's complete surrender, is unwilling to make any compromises in good-faith negotiations and is prepared to continue the war to achieve this goal.
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