ISW analyses how Russia uses negotiations to advance on battlefield

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have assessed that Russia is unwilling to agree to a ceasefire ahead of peace talks in order to advance on the battlefield and extract concessions from Ukraine and the West.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Russia must agree that ceasefire negotiations must precede peace settlement negotiations."

Details: The United States, Ukraine and Europe have repeatedly called for a ceasefire to allow diplomatic negotiations to continue on ending Russia's war against Ukraine.

The ISW analysts noted that Russia is intentionally rejecting this sequence of events as part of its efforts to delay any ceasefire negotiations and extract additional concessions from Ukraine and the West.

Quote: "ISW continues to assess that Russia is committed to prolonging peace negotiations so as to continue making battlefield advances."

Details: The analysts pointed out that peace talks before a ceasefire would allow Russia to continue its advance in Ukraine, which Russia would likely try to use in Ukraine-Russia negotiations to obtain further concessions.

Quote: "Any future ceasefire will require Russia and Ukraine to engage in separate negotiations to agree on the necessary robust monitoring mechanisms, and conflating ceasefire talks with peace settlement talks will likely delay the implementation of a ceasefire."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 19 May: 

• US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call on 19 May to discuss ceasefire and peace negotiations regarding Russia's war in Ukraine. [N.B. Ukrainska Pravda does not recognise Putin as president – ed.] 
• Russia must explicitly acknowledge the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president, government, and constitution and Ukraine's sovereignty in order to engage in meaningful, good-faith negotiations.
• Russia must agree that ceasefire negotiations must precede peace settlement negotiations.
• Russia must show its willingness to make concessions of its own in any future bilateral negotiations, especially as the Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to expand its list of demands amid the peace talks.
• Russia reportedly continues to expand its military infrastructure along its border with Finland and Estonia, likely in preparation for future aggression against NATO.
• Ukraine's Western allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Borova and Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Novopavlivka.

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