407,000 people joined Russian forces in 2024, but recruitment pace slows
Russian opposition publication Vazhnye Istorii (Important Stories) has found that up to 407,200 Russians signed contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry in 2024, which contradicts the Russian authorities' statements about the flow of volunteer soldiers. Meanwhile, the rate of recruitment is declining this year.
Source: Vazhnye Istorii (Important Stories)
"The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation is probably still overestimating the number of new contract servicemen. [Russian] Defence Minister Andrey Belousov said that 427,000 people signed a contract for service at the end of 2024, which is 5-15% higher than the budget expenditure data shows. Dmitry Medvedev's estimate of 450,000 contract servicemen is even more at odds with the budget expenditures," Vazhnye Istorii said.
Details: Vazhnye Istorii notes that the recruitment rate has slowed down compared to the previous year. In particular, an average of 1,700 people signed contracts per day in the 4th quarter of 2024, which is 1.3 times less than in the same period in 2023.
Also, data from Russian regions show that the rate of contract recruitment continued to decline in the spring of 2025. However, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced a twofold increase in volunteer soldiers – 1,800 recruits per day.
Meanwhile, German researcher Janis Kluge, who assesses the pace of recruitment into the Russian army, points out that "contracts with the Russian Armed Forces are now being signed by an average of about 1,000 people a day across Russia".
Background:
- Defence Intelligence of Ukraine had estimated that the ground force of the Russian military group involved in hostilities against Ukraine in November 2024 totalled almost 580,000 Russian servicemen, including Kursk Oblast.
- In June 2024, Russian leader Vladimir Putin claimed that nearly 700,000 Russian servicemen were fighting in Ukraine. In December 2023, he stated that 617,000 soldiers had been involved in the war.
- At that time, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlighted Putin's remarks, indicating that Russian forces lose approximately 20,000 personnel monthly in Ukraine. This number roughly matches or is slightly lower than the number of new soldiers Russia recruits each month.
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