WSJ: US warns Russia may attack NATO before end of war in Ukraine
US intelligence is warning that Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin may attempt to test NATO's resolve by carrying out a limited strike against one of the Alliance's member states within the next few years.
Source: The Wall Street Journal citing new US intelligence reports, as reported by European Pravda
Details: The reports outline various possible scenarios of aggressive action, ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale ground incursion.
These assessments, described by US officials, have emerged against a backdrop of shortages in certain types of critical munitions that their armed forces would need to counter Russia or China in a potential future war.
US stocks of such weapons have been significantly depleted by supplies to Ukraine following the Russian invasion, as well as by the US conflict with Iran.
According to other officials, stockpiles at risk include long-range precision-guided missiles, tactical missile systems used by ground forces and Stinger short-range surface-to-air missiles.
The US had previously assessed that Putin would not provoke a NATO member state while continuing to conduct combat operations in Ukraine. However, US officials say this assessment changed earlier this year, as the Kremlin's ruler finds himself increasingly cornered in Ukraine and under domestic pressure to deliver victory.
Kyiv's drones are inflicting ever-greater damage on both the Russian army and the oil industry, while Putin's forces are making negligible gains along the front line at heavy cost.
According to US officials, Putin's goal in attacking NATO during the war with Ukraine, should such an attack occur, would be to split the Alliance.
As Putin seeks to consolidate his preferred positions in Ukraine, US intelligence officials are analysing whether Moscow intends to step up its aggressive actions against European allies in the near term, sources said.
US officials stress that the concern centres on Putin potentially becoming even more dangerous when cornered.
Possible threats range from a cyberattack on a NATO country or the dispatch of unmarked armed groups to occupy territory, to a limited incursion on the Alliance's eastern flank. US intelligence assessments indicate that any action by Russia could occur between this autumn and 2029.
The probability of the most extreme scenario – a limited ground incursion – is low but growing over time, the reports indicate.
Background:
- Leaders of NATO's eastern flank countries recently issued public warnings, citing intelligence indicating that Russia is preparing provocations on their territory.
- Lithuania believes that if Russian provocations in the region lead to a critical security situation, NATO countries will deploy additional military forces to the Baltic state.
- Latvia has strengthened the protection of critical infrastructure due to possible Russian provocations.
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