ISW analyses why Russia is rushing to strike Ukraine's energy infrastructure
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have said that Russia is beginning its campaign of strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure earlier than usual, before Ukraine can develop effective measures to counter Russian ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones.
Source: ISW report on 4 October
Details: The report said that the Russian Defence Ministry had set out its main rhetorical justification for the upcoming brutal Russian campaign of strikes against Ukraine's critical infrastructure in the autumn and winter of 2026-2027.
The Russian ministry presented the escalation as a response to "alleged Ukrainian strikes against Russian civilian targets in multiple instances since June 2026".
ISW analysts suggested that Ukraine's battlefield successes in 2026 appear to be "forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin to reevaluate his original theory of victory in Ukraine and shift focus to compelling Ukraine to surrender through the winter 2026-2027 long-range strike campaign, as opposed to advances on the battlefield". [N.B. Ukrainska Pravda does not recognise Putin as president – ed.]
The report added that this "strike campaign aims to make civilian life in Ukraine unbearable such that Ukraine will capitulate to Russia's demands".
Russia has conducted similar campaigns of strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure every winter since the winter of 2022-2023 and is likely to begin its strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure earlier than usual this year, before Ukraine can develop effective measures to counter Russian ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones, which have already caused significant damage.
Quote from the report: "The Russian MoD's rhetorical framing is attempting to justify the intensification of its strike campaign, which will target Ukraine's already-degraded energy infrastructure and other critical infrastructure, to Russians and the international community."
Background:
- The Ukrainian Defence Ministry stated that Ukrainian long-range operations have put more than 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity out of action.
- The Russian Defence Ministry threatened to intensify attacks on Kyiv following Ukrainian attacks on Moscow.
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