European Commission draws up cautious roadmap for Ukraine's EU accession without setting entry date – Politico

Politico has written that the European Commission is preparing a more cautious roadmap for Ukraine's EU accession negotiations, specifying limited targets for progress by 2027 without any commitments regarding an entry date.

Source: Politico, a Brussels-based politics and policy news organisation, citing an EC document

Details: Politico reports that Brussels has long pushed to bring Ukraine closer to the EU as part of its wider efforts to secure the country's future following the war with Russia, seeing its ultimate membership as a means of firmly embedding Kyiv in European institutions and making renewed Russian aggression more difficult.

In the document obtained by Politico, Brussels urges Kyiv to "urgently and significantly step up the pace of the rule of law reforms". The roadmap shows that fulfilling key requirements in this area in the first half of 2027 is a prerequisite for the provisional completion of negotiations in individual policy areas.

The document, part of the Commission's enlargement package to be presented on 4 November, identifies seven policy areas in which Ukraine could provisionally conclude negotiations next year. It highlights how much progress Ukraine still needs to make before joining the EU and the challenges of implementing the necessary reforms under wartime conditions.

The document also highlights the growing divergence between Ukraine and Moldova, whose EU accession processes have long progressed in parallel. Moldova is now seen as having the potential to make significantly faster progress, raising the prospect that the two countries' accession processes could be decoupled.

According to the document, Brussels is aiming for progress in seven policy areas for Ukraine by 2027, whereas Moldova could conclude negotiations in more than 20.

Ukraine applied for EU membership on 28 February 2022, just four days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Moldova and Ukraine jointly received candidate status in June 2022 and officially launched accession negotiations on the same day in June 2024.

Since then, Kyiv has completed a detailed analysis of the compliance of its legislation with EU standards, and negotiations have officially begun in several main policy areas. In October, Ukraine and Moldova began negotiations on the EU's internal market, competitiveness and economic growth.

Politico notes that accession to the EU requires much more than political commitment alone. Candidate countries must align their legislation and institutions with EU standards across 35 negotiation areas, known as "chapters" in Brussels jargon. They cover a wide range of issues – from agriculture and food safety to competition rules, the independence of the judiciary and foreign policy.

The EC roadmap identifies only seven such areas in which Ukraine could provisionally complete negotiations in 2027. The completion of negotiations in the fields of education and culture is scheduled for the first half of the year, whilst those on intellectual property, employment and social policy, industrial policy, scientific research and external relations, as well as foreign policy and security policy, are scheduled for the second half.

The European Commission recognises that these changes are complex and require extensive consultations, time and resources. To help Ukraine move forward, Brussels has created a special task force to provide additional support to the Ukrainian authorities.

Politico adds that the difficulties are further exacerbated by the war, which is placing enormous demands on the government and parliament of Ukraine as they attempt to adopt and implement the legislation necessary for EU accession.

In this document, the EC carefully avoids setting an end date for Ukraine's accession negotiations, adopting a similarly cautious approach regarding other frontrunners in the EU accession process, notably Albania and Moldova. The exception is Montenegro, for which June 2027 is envisioned as the target date for the signing of the accession treaty.

Ukraine's roadmap is positioned as a "living document" that can be updated as negotiations progress, with the possibility of early completion of negotiations in additional policy areas remaining open should reforms progress faster than expected.

Politico notes that this uncertainty also reflects a broader challenge relating to the admission of a country to the EU while it is still fighting a war for its survival.

EU rules do not explicitly forbid a country at war from becoming a member of the European Union, but Ukraine's accession would raise complex issues regarding security, territorial integrity and the obligations that EU countries would take on towards another member under mutual assistance provisions.

Even the conclusion of a peace agreement would not automatically resolve these issues nor relieve Ukraine of the need to complete reforms. Furthermore, even after completing negotiations in individual areas, Kyiv would still have to take further steps prior to accession, including concluding an accession treaty requiring approval and ratification.

The European Commission also aims to see talks begin by the end of 2026 on two negotiating clusters in Ukraine's EU accession talks which are currently blocked: cluster 4, covering the green agenda and sustainable connectivity, and cluster 5, covering resources, agriculture and cohesion.

The document notes that, in the European Commission's view, Ukraine has fulfilled the necessary conditions, and is calling on the accession conference to make every effort to open the remaining negotiating clusters by the end of the year.

Opening these clusters would enable Ukraine to move forward with negotiations in the remaining policy areas, although the pace of further progress would continue to depend on reforms and the respective decisions by EU member states.

Previously: European Pravda reported, citing sources in the EU, that the European Commission does not currently plan to include indicative dates for the completion of accession negotiations in the roadmaps for Ukraine and Moldova.

Background:

• The European Commission plans to present the enlargement package on Wednesday 4 November.
• The information refutes previous media reports that the roadmap for Ukraine's path to EU accession envisages the completion of negotiations by the end of 2029.
• Taras Kachka, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, previously said that Ukraine plans to complete reforms for EU accession by the end of 2027.
• It also became known that Moldova wants to complete EU accession negotiations by 2028 and join in 2030.

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