Russian elites expect defeat in war after retreat from Kherson

The retreat of Russian troops from Kherson became a painful event for the Russian elites: it became clear that "the real war has been lost".

Source: Meduza, the Russian Latvia-based media outlet, citing sources close to the administration of the President of Russia and the government of the Russian Federation, who spoke on condition of anonymity

Details: Meduza’s source states that the retreat from Kherson became "a very painful event" for the Russian elites. A source close to businessmen from Vladimir Putin's "close circle" expressed himself as follows:

Quote: "It became clear: we lost the real war. People start thinking about how to live on, what place they would like to occupy in the future, what bet to make, what to play on. (On the one hand – ed.) there will be revanchist sentiments. On the other, there will be a request for normalisation and stabilisation."

More details: However, as Meduza states, the political bloc of the administration of the Russian President is more optimistic. In particular, according to one of the sources, the Kremlin still hopes that in the West, "the consensus in support of Ukraine will collapse" due to the need for cheap energy sources.

According to Meduza, the Kremlin's other hope is a sharp change in the political situation in Ukraine and the resignation of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In addition, the Russian authorities believe that in a few months, the Russian army will become more combat-ready thanks to mobilisation and will turn the tide in the conflict zone.

At the same time, Meduza’s sources in the Russian president’s administration claim that the retreat from Kherson did not affect the mood of the majority of Russians, because this event did not have time to be "promoted" in propaganda and people "were not triggered". In the source’s opinion, for this reason, Russians easily accept official explanations that the city had to be abandoned. Meduza emphasises that data from public opinion polls further confirm these theses.

Meanwhile, sources among regional politicians and businessmen do not believe that the Kremlin will be able to turn the tide. The source in the regional office of Yedinaya Rossiya (United Russia, the country’s majority political party -ed.) summarised: "What happened in Kherson is perceived as a shame and the result of a mess in the state, as if it they had expected it, but not to such an extent."

According to another regional official, in his circle, "the feeling of someone else’s war began to arise."

A source close to the government has said that against the background of constant military defeats, they have become even more worried about the "complete secrecy of the Russian top leadership": "We are not informed about anything, we find out a lot from the Ukrainian and Western news. It seems that we are constantly going to make concessions and we are still trying to cover and hide it."

Meduza notes that this kind of "depressing impression" appeared, in particular, after the Kremlin's fuss about the grain agreement [Black Sea Grain Initiative – ed.]. Among high-ranking officials, the position of representatives of the "elites" who "do not fully fit into the special operation" seems increasingly reasonable.

However, according to Meduza’s sources, despite all the discontent, officials and businessmen in the Russian Federation have no intention of taking any action against Putin: "Just want it all to end as soon as possible". 

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