Forbes: Armed Forces of Ukraine may start fourth offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Forbes magazine reports Ukrainian forces may start the fourth stage of their counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Source: Forbes

Details: On 9 December the Russian and Ukrainian forces launched artillery attacks at each other near the settlements of Huliaipole and Polohy in Zaporizhzhia Oblast located at a 65 miles (104.5 km – ed.) distance to the Northern East from the Russia-occupied Melitopol. David Axe, author of the Forbes article, reports that Russia’s actions may have been aimed at stopping the counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to the Russian sources, the Ukrainian army concentrates its mechanised forces around the town of Huliaipole. Pro-Russian separatist leader Igor Girkin said, "Russian intelligence detected the advance of massive mechanised forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the frontline," as reported by Axe.

Quote: "If that’s true, it could be a sign that Ukraine’s fourth counteroffensive might be imminent, despite the onset of winter.

This widely-anticipated attack, the Zaporizhzhia left hook, would aim to liberate much of southern Ukraine and push Ukrainian troops all the way to the narrow neck of land connecting mainland Ukraine to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russian forces seized in 2014."

Details: Herewith the magazine reports that neither Russian or Ukrainian forces have sufficient presence on the ground in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The sector along the Hulyaipole-Polohy axis since this spring has been the haunt of separate brigade-size Russian and Ukrainian units.

On the Russian side, there is the 291st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment, which on paper has a couple thousand soldiers and scores of armoured vehicles. On the Ukrainian side, there is the 106th Territorial Defense Brigade, a lightly-equipped formation with a few thousand volunteers from the local area. The 19th Separate Rifle Battalion, a 400-strong active-army unit, reinforces the territorial brigade.

Both sides have supporting artillery and harass each other, Axe reports.

It’s unclear what Ukrainian mechanised forces may have moved into Hulyaipole in possible anticipation of an offensive toward Melitopol. The 65th Mechanised Brigade is nearby, as is the 1st Tank Brigade.

Quote: "A drive on Melitopol could require more than just a couple heavy brigades. Ukraine’s previous counter offensives, around Kyiv in March and then around Kharkiv and Kherson six months later, each involved at least half-a-dozen heavy brigades.

To liberate Melitopol then turn right and free southern Kherson Oblast on the left bank of the Dnipro River, a Ukrainian force would have to advance 200 miles and defeat a dozen or more Russian brigades and regiments.

The Ukrainians already have made efforts to fix in place some of those Russian units, first by pushing to the Dnipro’s right bank and then by landing special operations forces on the Kinburn Peninsula on the southern side of the river delta where the Dnipro empties into the Black Sea.

But even if these forces can’t risk moving to react to a possible Ukrainian attack northeast of Melitopol, they still would be in the path of that attack as it hooked toward the mouth of the Dnipro and the land bridge with Crimea.

All that is to say, the Ukrainian armed forces will need to concentrate a lot of heavy forces in order for the Zaporizhzhia left hook to succeed. There’s a good chance the Russians will see them coming together and try to disrupt their assembly with artillery."

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