Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), believes that the Russian economy will "hold out" only until 2025 should the war of aggression against Ukraine continue, and the aggressor's arms supply will dry up in 2026 or earlier.
Source: Budanov in an interview with The Economist
Details: Amid reports that Russia is ready to step up its mobilisation campaign, Budanov noted that manpower is Russia's only clear advantage over Ukraine.
"Human resources in Russia are, relatively speaking, unlimited. The quality is low, but the quantity is sufficient," he said.
As for the other aspects of the war effort, Budanov believes that Russia's resources are running out and that the time for payback will soon come. He says that the Russian economy will only last until 2025, and the flow of weapons will dry up in 2026, "perhaps earlier."
The DIU chief believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin's talks with North Korea clearly indicate his problems.
"If everything is fine and Russia has enough resources, why are they looking for them all over the world? The answer is obvious. There is nothing to extract any more," he said.
Meanwhile, Budanov acknowledges that Ukraine also runs the risk of running out of its own resources.
"We are dependent on external players. Russia is mostly dependent on itself," he said.
At the same time, he rejected the idea that support for Ukraine from its partners might soon diminish. Budanov said he had "good intelligence" about political realities in the West.
"It is still absolutely undecided how long the West will be able to maintain a sufficient supply of resources to us. Warehouses in Western countries are not completely empty. No matter what anyone says. We can see this very clearly as an intelligence agency," he stated.
Background: In the same interview, Budanov said the Ukrainian Defence Forces might be able to sever Russia's land corridor with occupied Crimea before the onset of winter.