Ukraine can claim 186 billion euros in first seven years after joining EU

In the first 7 years after joining the European Union, Ukraine will be able to claim approximately EUR 186 billion from the EU budget.

Source: Financial Times, citing sources familiar with internal discussions in the EU

Details: The figures were allegedly heard at the negotiations of the member states on the possible accession of nine more countries to the EU.

EU officials calculated how the distribution of the common budget could look within the framework of the current rules, which were applied to the budget for 2021-2027. Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and the countries of the Western Balkans were included in such a modelled enlarged EU.

The calculations show that EUR 256.8 billion should be invested in those countries in the event of such an expansion.

This will mean a significant reduction in spending on countries that are already members of the European Union. In particular, subsidies for agriculture will probably have to be reduced by about 20%.

The experts concluded that the financial balance in the European Union will change significantly after the accession of nine more countries, even after a significant change in the existing budgetary mechanisms before the next enlargement.

With nine new members, the current budget must increase by 21% to EUR 1.47 trillion. This equals approximately 1.4% of the gross national income of 36 countries. The new balance will mean a significant increase in the contributions of the richer countries of Western Europe.

If the current budget rules are applied to the EU of 36 countries, Ukraine could apply for about EUR 96.5 billion of funds for agriculture over a seven-year period, which means the already mentioned reduction of subsidies for other countries.

In the case of accession to the EU, Ukraine will become the largest recipient of agricultural subsidies in the EU, surpassing France, and it is in this area that the impact of its accession will be most felt.

Also, Ukraine could claim EUR 61 billion from the so-called "cohesion funds", the purpose of which is to invest in the infrastructure of less developed member countries and "bring them up" to the level of the rest.

The Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Malta and Cyprus will probably no longer be able to apply for funds from these funds in the enlarged EU with current rules.

The Council of the EU press office told the media that they cannot comment on information leaks.

The FT emphasises that this is only a model based on existing EU mechanisms, which will almost certainly undergo major changes before the enlargement of the European Union.

At the same time, the analytical study noted the benefits for the EU from the expansion in the geopolitical and economic dimensions.

Read more: Lack of EU Courage. Ukraine's Ways and Means of Joining the Union

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