Russians advance in industrial zone near Avdiivka – ISW

Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Avdiivka on 6 December and made confirmed progress. 

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Geolocation footage released on 6 December shows that Russian forces have made minor advances in an industrial area southeast of Avdiivka. 

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian forces had repelled at least 25 attacks east of Novobakhmutivka (7 kilometres northwest of Avdiivka), northeast of Berdychiv (4 kilometres north of Avdiivka), as well as near Avdiivka, Stepove (3 kilometres north of Avdiivka), Sieverne (6 kilometres west of Avdiivka), Tonenke (5 kilometres west of Avdiivka) and Pervomaiske (11 kilometres southwest of Avdiivka).

Footage released on 5 December supposedly shows units of the Russian 87th and 1487th regiments (1st Army Corps of the so-called "DPR", which is a self-proclaimed and non-recognised Russia-controlled quasi-state formation in Donetsk Oblast), the 10th Tank Regiment (3rd Army Corps, Western Military District) and the Veterans sabotage and assault brigade operating in the industrial area southeast of Avdiivka.

Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Avdiivka and made confirmed progress. Geolocation footage released on 5 December showed Ukrainian troops advancing on Stepove. 

A Russian military blogger claimed on 6 December that Ukrainian troops were holding positions in the centre of Stepove despite Russian attacks.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 6 December: 

• Russian forces conducted a notably large series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of 5-6 December.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin travelled to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia to meet with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman in a series of bilateral meetings on 6 December.
• Russian oil revenues continue to increase due to a concerted Russian effort to skirt the G7 price cap on Russian crude oil and petroleum products.
• Russian society appears interested in discussing the outcome of the war in Ukraine despite the Kremlin’s increasing aversion to more in-depth public discussions of the war.
• Unspecified actors killed former pro-Russian Ukrainian MP Illia Kyva in Moscow Oblast on 6 December.
• Moscow’s 2nd Western Military District Court convicted two Russian air defence officers for negligence for failing to prevent a Ukrainian strike on Russian territory in April 2022, likely to set an example to improve discipline across the Russian military.
• Russian officials are reportedly attempting to funnel migrants who have ended up in Russia due to Russia’s failed hybrid war tactics on the Russian-Finnish border into ongoing force generation efforts.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and advanced near Avdiivka.
• The Russian State Duma will reportedly consider a bill allowing Russian conscripts to serve in the Federal Security Service’s (FSB) Border Service.
• Ukrainian partisans may have conducted an attack in occupied Luhansk City on 6 December that killed Luhansk People’s Republic [self-proclaimed and non-recognised Russia-controlled quasi-state formation – ed.] People’s Council Member Oleh Popov.

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