FT outlines real prospects of Ukraine-US minerals deal

The minerals agreement between Ukraine and the United States is unlikely to result in actual resource extraction for at least ten years and will require major private sector investment.
Source: Financial Times
Details: The agreement aims to attract investment into Ukraine’s mining and energy sectors and to establish a joint "reconstruction investment fund" financed by future project revenues.
Eric Rasmussen, former director of natural resources at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), stated that "it could be 10-15 years – that’s the sort of timeline we talk about".
Peter Bryant, head of mining consultancy Clareo, said that the deal does little to mitigate supply chain risks in the next decade, as simply discovering and developing deposits will take at least 10 years.
Ukraine’s commercially viable natural resources include iron ore, coal, lithium, graphite and titanium ores. The country is also the third-largest gas producer in Europe.
Future oil and gas projects will also be part of the deal, and experts believe they may progress faster than mining ventures.
However, the ongoing war, lack of geological data, damaged infrastructure and corruption risks are significant hurdles. Given these factors, the first minerals from new mines under the agreement are not expected before 2040.
Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko, who signed the deal, said on 9 May that the fund would be launched "within a few weeks".
However, tangible results are still years away, as geological exploration must come first, followed by feasibility studies and efforts to attract development funding.
The US-Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will only apply to new projects, meaning existing sites like Ferrexpo’s iron ore mines or the Shymanivske deposit, which is being developed by Canada's Black Iron, will not be covered.
Still, Black Iron CEO Matt Simpson believes Shymanivske will remain crucial for attracting foreign investment after the war ends. He warned that a major challenge would be the "access to skilled labour", since no new mines have been built in Ukraine since the Soviet era.
Even Ukrainian officials admit that profits from the fund won’t be seen for a long time.
"We expect that for the first 10 years, Fund profits and revenues will not be distributed, but instead reinvested into Ukraine – into new projects or reconstruction," Svyrydenko wrote on X (Twitter) on the day the agreement was signed.
Another problem is access to Soviet-era geological maps and data, much of which remains classified due to the war. Experts also caution that Ukraine’s long mining history may mean the most promising deposits have already been exhausted.
Background:
- On 8 May, the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) voted to ratify the agreement on establishing a joint investment fund between Ukraine and the United States. All 338 MPs voted in favour, with none of them abstaining or voting against ratification.
- On 1 May, Ukraine's Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signed the minerals deal.
- "Together with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, I have signed the agreement on the establishment of the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund," Svyrydenko wrote. "The United States is committed to helping facilitate the end of this cruel and senseless war. This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term."
- Earlier, it was reported that Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy had published the text of the memorandum with the United States on finalising the official agreement on economic partnership and the investment fund for reconstruction. The text was published on the Economy Ministry’s website.
- It states that the agreement will provide for the creation of an investment fund for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
- On 12 May, Zelenskyy signed the ratification of the mineral agreement with the United States.
- The Budget Committee of the Verkhovna Rada recommended the adoption on its first reading of draft law No. 13256, which introduces changes to the Budget Code to implement the "minerals agreement" between Ukraine and the United States.
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