IRYNA BALACHUK – WEDNESDAY, 7 SEPTEMBER 2022, 16:50
The Russians' loss of control over Crimea will significantly affect the course of the war, but in military terms, the effect of the peninsula’s liberation will be temporary.
Source: an article by Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, First Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defence and Intelligence, for Ukrinform
Quote by Zaluzhnyi and Zabrodskyi: "Let’s suppose that the Armed Forces of Ukraine achieve significant success in the 2023 military campaign and take control of the Crimean peninsula.
It is difficult to overestimate the extremely positive significance of such a strategic victory, politically and in terms of information. However, the military significance of such a victory can be assessed differently."
Details: Zaluzhnyi and Zabrodskyi believe that if Crimea is liberated, Russia will lose the base for its Black Sea Fleet, its airfield network, and a significant number of supplies, personnel and equipment.
Nevertheless, in their view the liberation of Crimea will not "prevent the painful, but highly likely, relocation of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to the Novorossiysk naval base on the eastern coast of the Black Sea." And in that case, "the military presence of the aggressor [state] in the region will be maintained, along with the threat of missile strikes."
The same applies to the Russian Air Force: the Russians will still be able to use the Primorsko-Akhtarsk and Yeisk airfields.
Zaluzhnyi and Zabrodskyi believe that the effect of Russia's loss of significant stockpiles of material resources will also be temporary. In addition, over time, the Russians will be able to replenish their losses of personnel and equipment, at least in terms of numbers.
Quote from Zaluzhnyi and Zabrodskyi: "To sum up, with regard to further prospects, after 2023 we can only talk about a new phase of the standoff - with different initial data and prospects, of course, but once again, we will have an ongoing standoff, [more] deaths, [more] consumption of resources and ultimately, an uncertain outcome."