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Putin wants to take over Belarus by 2030: journalists find out Kremlin's documents

Tuesday, 21 February 2023, 09:56
Putin wants to take over Belarus by 2030: journalists find out Kremlin's documents

Russia plans to take full control of Belarus' politics, economy, and military potential by 2030, according to an internal Kremlin document that was obtained by a group of journalists.

Source: Meduza, a Latvia-based Russian media outlet; Dossier Center (reportedly, the document was also received by journalists from Delfi (Estonia), Kyiv Independent (Ukraine), Belarusian Investigative Center (Belarus), Yahoo News (USA), Süddeutsche Zeitung (Germany), Westdeutscher Rundfunk (Germany), Norddeutscher Rundfunk (Germany), Expressen (Sweden), Frontstory (Poland), VSquare (Visegrad Group) and Norddeutscher Rundfunk (Germany))

Details: The media outlet does not post the document itself but notes that it is titled "Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation on the Belarusian Direction".

What is this document and what is this about?

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The development of "Strategic Goals..." was in 2021. The plan is divided into three stages: until 2022, until 2025, and until 2030.

According to the document, during these 9 years, the Kremlin wants to:

  • to establish the dominance of the Russian language over the Belarusian language,
  • to adjust the Belarusian legislation to the Russian one,
  • to subjugate the socio-political, trade, scientific and cultural life of Belarus,
  • increase military presence on the territory of Belarus,
  • to grant Russian citizenship to Belarusians.

The Union State is reportedly playing a key role in the Kremlin's plans, as it is through it that Russia intends to build up its forces in Belarus. For example, by the end of 2022, the presidential administration was tasked with convincing the Belarusian leadership of the need to work on the Union State.

Russian intelligence also aims to limit the influence of "nationalist and pro-Western" forces, complete the reform of the Belarusian constitution in line with Russian interests, and consolidate pro-Russian sentiment in the military and political elites and among the population.

In addition, the Kremlin intends to secure control over the information space of Belarus, open exam centres for the unified state exam in Belarus, and open new centres of science and culture in Mogilev, Grodno, and Vitebsk.

Who developed the document?

According to the media outlet, the document on the integration of Belarus into the Russian Federation was developed by the Russian presidential administration in cooperation with the Foreign Intelligence Service, the FSB, the GRU (Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces), and the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.

In particular, the Strategy was drafted by the Presidential Department for Border Cooperation, which intervenes in the politics of Belarus, Moldova, and the Baltic States.

The curator of the department is Dmitry Kozak, and the head of the department is Alexei Filatov, who previously represented the Kremlin's interests in South Ossetia and Abkhazia and also oversaw humanitarian and political cooperation with the pseudo-republics of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic.

Sergei Malenko and Vadim Polishchuk,the department's employees, drafted the document. 

Malenko was Putin's confidant during the 2012 presidential election and later headed one of the departments in the presidential administration's department for socio-economic cooperation with the Commonwealth of Independent States members, the republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. 

Polishchuk is a senior adviser to Malenko. In the 1980s, he served in the 309th Central Radio Direction Finding Unit of the GRU, then went into journalism, and after that, to the Russian presidential administration.

Vadim Smirnov, who heads a department in the presidential administration for interregional and cultural relations with foreign countries, is another Kremlin strategist. According to media reports, instead of cultural relations, the department was mainly engaged in recruiting agents in neighbouring countries and interfering in elections. Smirnov himself was in charge of the Baltics in the department.

GRU officers also worked on the development of the document. In particular, Andrei Greshnikov, the head of the Belarusian direction. According to the media outlet, in 2016, Greshnikov's namesake worked as the first secretary of the Russian Embassy in Belarus.

The Dossier's sources note that the war in Ukraine has somewhat slowed down the implementation of the Kremlin's plans, but Russia's long-term goal of achieving full control over Belarus is still in place and has not changed.

Why is it important?

Putin is actively exploiting Belarus to wage war against Ukraine. Initially, he used Belarus as a platform for attack, but after Russian troops were kicked out from the north of Ukraine, the Russian dictator has been using the territory of Belarus to launch missile strikes against Ukraine and to deploy and train his troops.

Putin has not yet succeeded in persuading Belarus to openly join the war against Ukraine, but Lukashenko actively supports the Russian dictator's actions, provides the territory of Belarus for Russian fighter jets and troops, conducts regular joint exercises on the territory of Belarus, and from time to time threatens to enter the war if "Ukraine and NATO threaten Belarus".

Western countries have therefore imposed sanctions on Belarus, which have made the Belarusian economy even more dependent on Russia.

Lukashenko's dependence on Putin increased significantly in 2020, when Russia's FSB assisted in suppressing mass protests against the self-proclaimed president of Belarus.

On 17 February, Lukashenko arrived in Russia's Novo-Ogaryovo for talks with Putin. At the beginning of the meeting, he admitted that he could not disregard this meeting.

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