Russia expects to use cruise missiles to disrupt Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive – UK Intelligence

Russia sees cruise missiles like the Kalibr as a key potential to disrupt the expected counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but their reserves are likely limited.

Source: European Pravda, regarding the intelligence review by the UK Defence Ministry on 12 May.

"On the night of 08-09 May 2023, the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet vessels launched eight SS-N-30a SAGARIS land attack cruise missiles (LACMs) against Ukraine. This was only the second use of Russian Navy LACMs reported since 09 March 2023", the report says.

It is noted that until March 2023, the Russian Navy often launched Kalibrs. It is likely that Russia suspended using these weapons because it wanted to replenish its stocks.

UK Defence Intelligence believes it is likely that in the short term, Russia sees cruise missiles as a key means of launching strikes deep into the territory of Ukraine to disrupt the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive.

However, on a more strategic level, Russia also sees the Kalibr and other cruise missiles as playing an important role in any potential conflict with NATO.

"How to use these scarce and expensive weapons is one of the numerous dilemmas Russian commanders face because the war in Ukraine has gone on much longer than they originally planned for," the report says.

Earlier, UK Defence Intelligence reported that since the beginning of 2023, the Russian Defence Ministry has intensified a scheme for recruiting Russian convicts to participate in the war in Ukraine.

The UK authorities have recently officially confirmed they are supplying Storm Shadow long-range missiles to Ukraine.

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