The Russian Armed Forces fear losing their warships, which outweighs Moscow's desire to block Ukrainian exports through the Black Sea, UK Defence Intelligence believes.
Source: the UK Defence Intelligence review dated 14 October on Twitter, as reported by European Pravda
Quote: "The risk of further military losses and the dire political consequences of Russian naval forces overtly attacking merchant shipping would highly likely outweigh any gain from attempting to enforce a blockade of Ukrainian-bound trade."
Details: The UK MoD reported that Russia had already doubled its defensive posture following the summer's attacks on the Black Sea Fleet.
Many prestigious assets have been moved from Russian-occupied Crimea to the city of Novorossiysk, including warships and submarines with cruise missiles.
Background: The Ukrainian Navy has clarified that the Pavel Derzhavin, a patrol vessel of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, was attacked twice. Apart from it, the multipurpose tugboat Professor Nikolai Muru was damaged.