Putin tells Xi he intends to fight in Ukraine for at least 5 years – Nikkei Asia

Russian President Vladimir Putin told his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during a meeting in Moscow in March 2023 that Russia "will fight for [at least] five years" in Ukraine, the Nikkei Asia news outlet has stated, with reference to its sources. 

Source: Nikkei Asia

Details: The outlet suggested that this was Putin's way of summing up the situation, which was unfavourable for Russia at the time, and assuring Xi, who was visiting Russia for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine, that Russia would eventually prevail in the war.

Quote: "The likely implication was that a protracted war would favour China's well-armed partner. Taken another way, the remark was also a warning to Xi not to change his pro-Russia stance.

Whether Xi was convinced, Putin's remark at the summit holds the key to understanding a series of mysterious developments in Russia-China relations, from a Chinese peace mission to Europe in May to China sacking its foreign minister months later."

Details: Nikkei Asia noted that The New York Times had recently reported that since at least September, Putin had been using intermediaries to make it clear that he was open to a ceasefire, provided that Russia can keep the territories it currently occupies.

Quote: "But given Putin's words to Xi in March, revealed by multiple sources familiar with diplomatic manoeuvring between China and Russia, the Russian leader's reported intentions for a ceasefire should not be taken at face value."

More details: It is possible that Putin only wants to create the illusion that he is moving towards a ceasefire or even peace ahead of Russia's presidential election in March, believing that such an atmosphere will be favourable for him in the polls.

Meanwhile, China has revised its strategy, in part based on Putin's March "five-year" statement.

Nikkei Asia says that if the war between Russia and Ukraine drags on, it will have a significant impact on Xi's plans and ambitions for his unprecedented third term as leader of China and general secretary of the Communist Party of China. It could also affect Xi's big goal of "reunifying" Taiwan with mainland China.

However, Nikkei Asia stated that Putin had not fully persuaded Xi. 

It is also noted that Xi has been harbouring a grudge against Putin since the China-Russia summit held on 4 February 2022, the opening day of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. 

Putin was the only leader of a powerful state to attend the opening ceremony, and he played on China's sense of obligation to him. During the Winter Olympics summit, Putin supposedly gave no indication that he was going to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but the invasion did take place on 24 February – just after the 2022 Olympics.

"The surprise attack left China panicked," Nikkei Asia wrote, reiterating that 20 days earlier, Xi and Putin had announced a "no limits" partnership between their countries, leading the world to conclude that China had given tacit consent to Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Nikkei Asia believes that this was not the case: China misjudged Russia's true intentions, believing that Russian troops would invade only the eastern part of Ukraine.

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