Kremlin manipulates topic of ceasefire in Ukraine – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that the Kremlin has been trying to manipulate discussions regarding a ceasefire and undermine the unity of Ukraine, the US and Europe on this issue.

Source: ISW

Details: ISW noted that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is trying to manipulate the ongoing discussions about a ceasefire and future peace in Ukraine, likely attempting to undermine the unity of Ukraine, the US and Europe around the issue of a full 30-day ceasefire.

The report highlighted that Kremlin officials had recently intensified their interactions with Western media outlets, trying to directly address the Trump administration and the American public, painting the terms of Ukraine's capitulation as proposed by Russia as reasonable.

The ISW pointed out that Putin's address on 11 May and recent interviews with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov to Western media outlets are part of efforts to introduce Kremlin narratives into the Western information space, aimed at convincing the West that Russia is capable of conquering all of Ukraine by force and intimidating both Ukraine and the West into agreeing to Russia's demands.

Quote: "Putin's rhetorical posturing is an attempt to conceal limitations in the Russian military's capabilities and distract from Russia's failure to make any significant progress on the battlefield over the last two years.

Putin and other Kremlin officials firmly maintain their war aims that amount to Ukraine's full capitulation and have thus far refused to consider any peace deal that does not concede to all of Russia's demands.

The Kremlin is falsely portraying itself as willing to engage in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine while continuing to attack frontline Ukrainian positions and setting conditions for further military aggression against Ukraine and NATO in the coming years."

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 11 May:

• Russian leader Vladimir Putin called for Russia and Ukraine to resume bilateral negotiations based on the early 2022 Istanbul protocols that include Russian demands amounting to full Ukrainian surrender. Any agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.
• Putin also continues to demand that any negotiations address Russia's perceived "root causes" of the war in Ukraine.
• Putin is attempting to manipulate ongoing discussions about a ceasefire and future peace in Ukraine, likely in an effort to undermine Ukrainian-US-European unity around a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan accepted Russian leader Vladimir Putin's proposal to hold bilateral negotiations in Türkiye on 15  May.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in the northern Kharkiv and Novopavlivka directions.

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