Russia will come to negotiating table only after major battlefield defeats – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assess that only proper military assistance to Ukraine by its allies and significant military failures will force Russian leader Vladimir Putin to "reconsider Russia's ability to militarily defeat Ukraine and bring him to the negotiating table".

Source: ISW

Details: UK Defence Secretary John Healey announced a "50-day drive" to strengthen Ukraine's military capabilities during the Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting on 21 July. The goal is to pressure Russian leader Vladimir Putin toward talks.

Healey emphasised the urgency of the effort, citing US President Donald Trump's warning that he would introduce strict 100 per cent secondary tariffs on countries trading with Russia if a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine is not reached within 50 days from 14 July.

Quote from ISW: "ISW has consistently assessed that only significant Russian battlefield setbacks, enabled by timely and sufficient Western military assistance to Ukrainian forces, will force Putin to reconsider Russia's ability to militarily defeat Ukraine and bring him to the negotiating table."

Details: ISW noted that such setbacks for Russia are unlikely to occur "in a matter of weeks" and will more likely require several months or "campaign seasons", assuming that the West remains committed to properly equipping and supporting Ukrainian forces so they are able to conduct successful operations.

Meanwhile, Russia’s reported decision to send the same mid-level delegation to the expected third round of talks suggests that its lack of genuine interest in pursuing a peace settlement remains unchanged.

Quote from ISW: "ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin remains dedicated to protracting peace negotiations to support continued offensive operations in Ukraine and extract additional concessions from Ukraine and the West."

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