US secretary of state and chief of Zelenskyy's office discuss security guarantees, draft expected next week

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Andrii Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, have discussed security guarantees for Ukraine during a meeting of advisers. The parties plan to finalise the model by the end of next week.

Source: Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne, citing Yermak’s adviser Oleksandr Bevz and sources in the President’s Office

Details: The meeting on security guarantees for Ukraine took place on the evening of 22 August. The US was represented by Rubio and US military generals. National security advisers from the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Finland, as well as representatives of NATO and the European Commission also joined.

A source said that the security guarantees are currently being worked out by two subgroups: political-legal and purely military.

The political group from Ukraine is led by Yermak. Military matters are being discussed by National Security and Defence Council Secretary Rustem Umierov, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi and other representatives of Ukraine’s defence forces.

The military guarantees include the supply of weapons, financial support for the defence forces, intelligence sharing, training provision and joint training missions.

"I think the military component is nearing completion," the source said.

They noted that the guarantees are being developed with the understanding that there is the Coalition of the Willing and the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (also known as the Ramstein Format), which, in addition to arms supplies, also provides for discussions on which states [how, when and in what numbers – ed.] will deploy military contingents on Ukrainian territory. This would only take place after a sustainable ceasefire.

Quote from the source: "But of course, for Ukraine and European states it is very important that the US ensures what is known as the backstop mechanism. Yes, President Donald Trump and other US officials have said they are not currently considering troops on the ground. But the US could provide a backstop mechanism, supported by many other components – first and foremost, air cover. And this is what is being worked out in the military component."

Details: Yermak’s adviser Oleksandr Bevz said the draft project of security guarantees for Ukraine is planned to be finalised by the end of next week. It will be a framework version with a set of components. The next stage will be signing agreements, but their formalisation and ratification will take more time.

He said that negotiators working on the political part of the guarantees are developing a sort of version of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty on collective defence. The meetings discuss a clear mechanism of action: what happens if Russia resumes its aggression or launches a new war against Ukraine.

Quote from Bevz: "In Ukraine’s vision, this should be a system of bilateral binding agreements ratified by the parliaments of the relevant countries. That means not just duplicating Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, but spelling out an algorithm with specific timeframes and dimensions: financial, military, intelligence and so on."

Background: 

• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that the security guarantees for Ukraine negotiated by European countries and the United States will consist of two levels.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the role individual countries will play will become clear only after the full framework of security guarantees for Ukraine is defined.
• Romania has signalled its readiness to provide NATO allies with military bases as part of security guarantees for Ukraine.
• Meanwhile, European leaders are urging the US to deploy F-35 fighter jets to Romania within the framework of these guarantees.

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