Ukrainian intelligence says Russia is preparing spring-summer offensive and aims to seize Donbas by September

Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Head of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence, has said that Russia is preparing a new spring–summer offensive in Ukraine's southeast, is deploying its strategic reserve and plans to increase its military presence in Ukraine by another 20,000 troops.

Source: Skibitskyi in an interview with Financial Times

Details: According to Skibitskyi, Russia is committing its strategic reserve and adding around 20,000 troops to its forces in Ukraine. At present, Ukraine's military intelligence estimates the total number at about 680,000 personnel.

Skibitskyi said that Russia intends to seize the entire Donbas by September.

He also emphasised that in recent weeks Russian forces have been increasing ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. According to Skibitskyi, Russia produces around 60 Iskander missiles per month and is expanding its launcher capabilities.

Meanwhile, Ukraine does not have enough modern air defence systems, including the Patriot missile system, to cover the entire country.

Skibitskyi warned that critical infrastructure – particularly energy facilities heavily damaged during winter attacks – remains extremely vulnerable as Russia continues to refine its strike tactics.

Quote: "Skibitskyi said that Russia's increasing missile and drone attacks are part of a broader effort to destroy critical infrastructure and shape the battlefield ahead of a renewed spring-summer offensive."

Details: Skibitskyi added that Moscow's actions demonstrate a lack of serious intent to engage in negotiations and that it plans to continue the war.

Background:

• Between 07:00 on 15 April and 07:00 on 16 April, Russian forces carried out two waves of combined attacks across Ukraine using land- and air-launched missiles as well as attack drones. As a result, 19 people were killed and more than 100 injured.
• Over the course of the day, Russian forces attacked Ukraine using 44 missiles and 659 drones of various types; air defence downed 667 aerial assets, including 31 missiles.
• On 15 April, Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned in an interview with ZDF about the threat of reduced weapons supplies to Ukraine if the war in the Middle East continues.

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