Estonian intelligence on Ukrainian strikes on Russian plants 3,000 km away: situation has changed

Estonian intelligence has noted in its assessment of the Russia-Ukraine war that Ukraine has reached Russian plants located nearly 3,000 km away from the border for the first time, in an area that Russia could previously have considered a safe rear.

Source: Estonian public broadcaster ERR, as reported by European Pravda

Details: Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Head of the Intelligence Centre of the Estonian Defence Forces, noted that a gas processing plant in Novy Urengoy in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, located about 3,000 km away, came under Ukrainian attack on 9 September – an area that Russia could previously have considered a safe rear area.

Quote from Kiviselg: "The situation has changed, and a region extremely important for Russia's fossil fuel production – where about 90% of Russia's natural gas and 19% of its oil is produced – is now within Ukraine's strike range."

Details: Kiviselg pointed out that oil refineries in Perm Krai, Ryazan and Saratov oblasts, a petrochemical plant in Bashkortostan, and an oil terminal in Krasnodar Krai had also come under Ukrainian attacks. Military targets included a naval base in Novorossiysk, airbases in Crimea and Krasnodar Krai, and air defence facilities in Rostov Oblast.

Meanwhile, Russia has expanded the range of standard targets for its strikes on Ukraine, launching systematic attacks on food and pharmaceutical warehouses, shopping centres and other facilities. It also began carrying out prolonged attacks on Kyiv, keeping the city under air-raid warnings for hours at a time, particularly on 1-4 September, ahead of the visit by the US president's special envoys.

ERR reported that "there were around 250 clashes per day last week, an 11% increase from the previous week". The most active areas were Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, Lyman and Huliaipole fronts. Russia's objective remains to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and regain positions lost in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Kiviselg noted that there are signs of successes by the defence forces of Ukraine near Lyman, although no official reports have been issued yet.

Background:

• Earlier, Estonian intelligence suggested that the problems ordinary Russians have begun to experience could influence September's elections to the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament.
• Estonia's upcoming defence minister Martin Herem believes that the earliest the war could end is in six months.

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