ISW forecasts conditions for Ukraine's major counteroffensive

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that Ukraine will be able to start a large counteroffensive during the next few months if the West provides it with the necessary military aid. 

Source: ISW

Details: Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to sustain a successful large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine, according to data analysis by the Institute.

ISW analysts believe that Russia’s inability to regenerate expended mechanised vehicles in the short term further restricts Russian manoeuvre warfare capabilities, forcing Russian troops to rely on older equipment.

At the same time, the analysts assess that Ukraine likely continues to have a window of opportunity to initiate a large-scale counteroffensive over the next few months, but its ability to do so likely rests heavily on the speed and scale at which the West provides it with the necessary materiel, particularly tanks and other armoured vehicles.

The Institute notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to announce measures for further escalation of the war in Ukraine, major new Russian mobilisation initiatives, or any other significant policy in his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly [the Russian two-house parliament – ed.] on 21 February.

Putin postponed his annual address to the Federal Assembly several times in 2022, likely in hopes of eventually using this speech to celebrate sweeping Russian victories in Ukraine but was unable to do so due to the lack of such victories and amidst heightened criticism of the Kremlin’s management of the war.

Russian military failures in Ukraine continue to deny Putin the ability to present military success to the Russian people, according to the ISW report.

The ISW analysts say: "The stubborn Ukrainian defence of Bakhmut itself, despite the cost in Ukrainian lives and materiel, would prevent Putin from even claiming that Russia has secured that city on the war’s anniversary, a claim that could give Putin, the Russian military, and the Russian public renewed hope of winning and possibly increase the Kremlin’s willingness to demand more of its people to press on."

Key Takeaways from 15 February: 

• Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to sustain a successful large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine.
• Russia’s inability to reconstruct spent mechanised material in the short term further restricts the Russian military’s mechanised manoeuvre warfare capabilities.
• Putin is unlikely to announce measures for further escalation of the war in Ukraine, major new Russian mobilisation initiatives, or any other significant policy in his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly on 21 February.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, along the western outskirts of Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
• The Kremlin continues to fund its war efforts in Ukraine from regional budgets.
• The Russian government continues to further integrate occupied territories into Russian governance structures.

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