Information about Ukraine's possible counteroffensive causes "considerable concern" in Russia – ISW
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted that Russia's information space is reacting "with considerable concern" to reports of a slowdown in Russian operations and a possible counteroffensive by Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
Source: ISW
Details: According to the Institute, reports of a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive are increasingly being heard in the Russian information space.
On 24 March, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia was aware of the preparation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive and that the aggressor country's General Staff was preparing decisions and measures to respond to it.
Analysts have concluded that the so-called "big" Russian spring offensive "appears to be culminating, and the Russian information space appears to be responding to the slow-down of Russian operations and potential for Ukraine to regain the initiative with substantial anxiety."
"Russian military command will need to commit a significant number of forces to the frontline to either prevent culmination or launch renewed offensive operations, and it is unlikely that such forces exist at sufficient scale to do either," the report states.
ISW's Key Takeaways for 24 March:
- Prominent voices in the Russian information space are increasingly setting information conditions to prepare for a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.
- Crimean occupation head Sergey Aksyonov has reportedly formed a Wagner Group-affiliated private military company (PMC) in occupied Crimea.
- Some prominent Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian military command for continuing to impale Russian forces on Vuhledar with ineffective human-wave style frontal assaults.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with the Russian Security Council likely as part of his effort to portray himself as a present and effective wartime leader.
- Russian forces conducted limited attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian forces have made gains in and around Bakhmut and conducted ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.
- The Ukrainian General Staff corrected its 23 March statement that Russian forces withdrew from Nova Kakhovka, occupied Kherson Oblast.
- Russian occupation authorities announced the creation of a pro-Russian militaristic youth movement aimed at brainwashing children.
- The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on 24 March that at least 1,000 Russian personnel training at the 230th Combined Arms Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground in Brest, Belarus, redeployed to Russia.
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