Leak of US documents exposes Russians' fear of a Ukrainian counteroffensive – ISW
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said Russian milbloggers responded with speculative anxiety to the leaking of classified US and NATO military documents about the war in Ukraine, indicating continued fear over the prospect of a future Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Source: ISW
Quote: "Regardless of the veracity of the reportedly leaked documents, the response of Russian milbloggers to the New York Times story highlights the fear of prospective Ukrainian counteroffensives pervading the Russian pro-war information space.
The New York Times story has therefore exposed a significant point of neuralgia in the Russian information space, and responses to the documents suggest that Russian milbloggers may be increasingly reconsidering the validity of their own assessments and speculations regarding any potential Ukrainian counteroffensives and their ability to forecast Ukrainian operations."
Details: The ISW noted that several prominent Russian milbloggers immediately rejected the validity of the documents and suggested that they are fakes; they focused on the possibility that the released documents are acts of disinformation intended to confuse and mislead the Russian military command.
ISW also paid attention to the statement by Bellingcat analyst Aric Toler, who noted that the documents circulated online as early as 4 March, and it remains unclear why these documents reached the mainstream Western media over a month later.
Background:
- The New York Times has reported that classified military documents "detailing secret American and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russia" have been circulated on Twitter and Telegram.
- Mykhailo Podoliak, an advisor to the head of the President’s Office, said the "leaked" materials are "photoshopped" and joked about the deterioration in Russian intelligence.
- Anonymous US officials told Reuters that Russia or pro-Russian elements are behind the leak of several secret American military documents, which were posted on social media and allegedly indicated Ukraine's preparations for the spring counteroffensive.
- A new batch of classified documents that appear to detail American national security secrets regarding Ukraine, the Middle East to China have surfaced on social media sites.
- A new batch of secret documents has appeared on social networks, which probably detail US national security secrets regarding Ukraine, the Middle East and China.
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