ISW explains Russia's use of drone attack on Kremlin

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that Russia will use a "drone strike on the Kremlin" to cancel even more parades on 9 May [Victory Day is a Russian holiday that commemorates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, celebrated on 9 May – ed.].

Source: ISW

Details: It is noted in the report that Russian officials are likely "using the May 3 drone strike on the Kremlin to expand cancellations of parades for the May 9 Victory Day holiday".

Russian sources have continued to react to the drone strike on the Kremlin on 3 May. Russia's Investigative Committee has announced that it has opened a criminal case "on the fact of a terrorist attack in connection with an attempt to strike the Kremlin" and further strengthened the claim that Kyiv was responsible for the strike.

It is also mentioned that Russia conducted another strike with Iranian-made Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drones on Ukraine on 4 May.

The analysts have also pointed out that the Kremlin is reportedly continuing to restructure its internal security agencies.

The ISW has also pointed out once again that the Russian authorities may use a series of new laws that increase penalties for discrediting the Russian armed forces, misappropriating military property and trespassing on secured facilities to support these efforts.

Avril Haines, US Director of National Intelligence, has said that Russia is unlikely to be able to conduct a significant offensive in Ukraine this year due to a lack of ammunition and manpower, regardless of whether the Ukrainian counteroffensive is successful.

Quote: "Haines’ statements support and expand on ISW’s prior assessments that Russian forces are unable to conduct large-scale, simultaneous offensive campaigns on multiple axes."

More details: The experts have also stressed that Russia and India have reportedly suspended rupee trade. The suspended negotiations are likely to be related to India's payment to Russia for spare parts and two S-400 air defence systems.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 4 May: 

• Russia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4.
• Russian officials are likely using the May 3 drone strike on the Kremlin to expand cancellations of parades for the May 9 Victory Day holiday.
• The Kremlin is reportedly continuing its overhaul of domestic security organs.
• US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated that Russian forces are likely unable to conduct a "significant offensive" in 2023 due to munitions and manpower shortages regardless of the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• Russia and India reportedly suspended efforts to trade in rupees.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made territorial gains south of Kreminna.
• Ukrainian forces likely conducted a limited counterattack southwest of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Kremlin is attempting to increase the production quotas of military supplies despite reportedly lacking the necessary manpower.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to announce new security measures in an effort to prevent partisan attacks in occupied territories. 

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