Russian air defence in Leningrad Oblast was created to defend against NATO, not attacks from the south – ISW

On 21 January, a Russian insider source said that Russian air defences were not properly protecting Leningrad Oblast.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts quoted a source as saying that Russian air defences in Leningrad Oblast are probably not configured to counter attacks from the south. 

Russian air defence systems in the Leningrad region are likely positioned to defend against attacks from the northwest and west, as Russia has historically designed its air defences in the area to defend against hypothetical NATO attacks. 

The Russian military is currently reforming the Leningrad Military District (LMD) with the intention of preparing for a potential war against NATO and may be deploying military assets along borders shared with NATO members. 

Ukrainian strikes in Leningrad Oblast could force Russian forces to redeploy short-range air defence systems along expected Ukrainian drone flight routes, to protect locations of strategic importance. 

ISW believes that Russian forces may not be able to cover all potential strategic targets in the oblast using short-range anti-aircraft systems like the Pantsir, at least without deploying additional units, and that continued Ukrainian strikes deep in Russia's rear areas could increase pressure on Russian air defences in general.

Background: 

• The Novatek plant on the Baltic Sea coast suspended operations after an attack by Ukrainian drones.
• On the night of 21 January, the sea terminal in the Russian city of Ust-Luga, Leningrad Oblast, was attacked by drones. Later it became known that this was a special operation by the Security Service of Ukraine.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways for 21 January:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against targets in Leningrad and Tula oblasts, where repeated Ukrainian drone strikes may cause the redeployment of Russian short-range air defence systems to defend potentially significant targets along expected flight routes.
• Moldovan authorities accused Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria of numerous violations, including the improper use of drones, while conducting exercises in late December 2023, prompting an information attack by a pro-Kremlin mouthpiece.
• Russia is likely developing closer relations with North Korea as part of an effort to procure more artillery ammunition from abroad amid domestic munition shortages.
• Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the front.
• Russian opposition outlet Mobilization News reported on 21 January that military commanders are likely mistreating troops at a training ground in Volgograd Oblast.
• Russian federal subjects continue to foster patronage networks in occupied Ukraine.

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