FT: Russia unlikely to resume meaningful negotiations before February 2027

Sources familiar with the matter have told the Financial Times that Russia is unlikely to take part in any substantive negotiations before February 2027. Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin believes that by then Russia will have occupied all of Donetsk Oblast and that the US will have pressured Ukraine into making concessions.

Source: Financial Times

Quote: "Russia's focus on Putin's maximalist goals means Moscow is unlikely to take part in any meaningful talks before February next year, another person in Moscow involved in back-channel talks to end the war said."

Details: A Russian source told the Financial Times that "the preferred option of the Russians so far remains that the Americans will 'deliver' Ukraine for us".

Quote from the Russian source: "They are not hinting at any concessions. They keep repeating the same objectives . . . Their basis for negotiations essentially means there is no basis for negotiations."

Details: The report also said that Russian negotiators had told the US side it must persuade Kyiv to agree to significant concessions. Senior Ukrainian officials involved in the peace talks shared this information with the Financial Times.

Those officials also said that trilateral peace talks involving Ukraine, the US and Russia, mediated by Washington, are unlikely to resume before the end of the summer.

Although Russia's ground offensive has slowed, Putin has ordered his forces to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast by the end of the year, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This assessment is based on Ukrainian intelligence reviewed by the Financial Times and two people who have spoken with the Russian leader.

Background:

• Following the outbreak of the war in Iran, potential trilateral talks between Ukraine, the US and Russia were postponed.
• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged that the US is currently focused on negotiations with Iran, shifting its attention away from Ukraine.
• On 15 June, Zelenskyy said he had proposed meeting Putin at the G7 summit in France for talks on ending the war, but that Russia was "not ready to talk".
• On 4 June, Zelenskyy sent an open letter to Putin proposing a face-to-face bilateral meeting to end the war. He also said that Europe and the US should be involved in the negotiations.
• US President Donald Trump was supportive of the idea of a bilateral meeting between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia.
• Meanwhile, the Kremlin leader said that he had read Zelenskyy's open letter and saw no point in holding such a meeting.

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