Leaked US intelligence documents: war in Ukraine will drag on beyond 2023
The documents of the US Department of Defence, allegedly leaked to the Internet, show that Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine is turning into a protracted conflict that will last "well beyond 2023".
Source: Reuters; European Pravda
Details: One of the documents dated 23 February 2023, titled "Battle for the Donbas Region Likely Heading for a Stalemate Throughout 2023" states that Russia is unlikely to be able to capture this part of eastern Ukraine.
"Russia's grinding campaign of attrition in the Donbas region is likely heading toward a stalemate, thwarting Moscow's goal to capture the entire region in 2023," the authors of the intelligence assessment note.
"These tactics have diminished Russian forces and munition stockpiles to a level that, barring an unforeseen recovery, can exhaust Russian units and frustrate Moscow's war aims, resulting in a protracted war beyond 2023," the document states.
The US military intelligence documents also state that both Russia and Ukraine have "moderate" combat resilience, meaning that both sides are likely to continue fighting for some time to come.
Reuters analysed more than 50 documents classified as "Secret" and "Top Secret" that first appeared on social media in March. The agency was unable to confirm their authenticity.
Background:
- On 7 April, The New York Times, citing sources in the White House, reported a data leak: allegedly classified military documents detailing US and NATO plans to build up the Ukrainian army before a planned counteroffensive appeared on Twitter and Telegram. More and more documents are appearing in the media.
- Bellingcat investigators found that the classified data was distributed on 1 and 2 March on a Discord server called WowMao, but the original source may be even earlier.
- Associated Press journalists talked to users of the Discord platform and they found out that the secret documents were allegedly distributed by a user with the nickname "Lucca", who may be a "child."
- The UK Defence Ministry warned of a "serious level of inaccuracy" in allegedly leaked US classified documents relating to the war in Ukraine.
- The US Department of Justice has launched an investigation into the leak of a huge number of US intelligence documents, and the US State Department has stated that the incident with the publication of classified documents will not affect support for Ukraine in the war with Russia.
- According to media reports, the leak of classified documents caused a crisis in relations between the United States and its allies
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