Belarusian opposition leader sees Ukraine's victory as chance for regime change in Belarus

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leader of the Belarusian opposition, believes that Ukraine’s victory in the war could become an opportunity for regime change in Belarus.

Source: Tsikhanouskaya speaking in Warsaw on 26 January, as reported by European Pravda citing Zerkalo, a Belarusian media outlet

Details: Tsikhanouskaya outlined several scenarios that could create a window of opportunity for regime change in Belarus, all the while Alexander Lukashenko is being "re-elected" for the seventh term in the sham elections on 26 January.

Firstly, she noted that such an opportunity would arise with Ukraine’s victory in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Quote: "This is why I support giving Ukraine everything possible to ensure their victory and to put them in a strong position during negotiations. Ukraine's victory means a weakened Putin, and consequently, a weakened Lukashenko. He is already very weak, relying solely on Putin's support."

Details: Tsikhanouskaya also said a window of opportunity could emerge due to economic issues faced by Belarus.

Quote: "This could happen because of some economic problems if Lukashenko's pockets are empty due to sanctions. And the regime will not be able to maintain so-called economic stability in Belarus."

More details:  Additionally, Tsikhanouskaya suggested that a regime change could be linked to Lukashenko’s health.

"We shouldn’t count on this, but it’s also possible. Or it could be another unexpected event – a so-called 'black swan' – that could appear suddenly," she added.

Tsikhanouskaya stated that the task of democratic forces and Belarusians is to be prepared for such a moment.

Background:

• EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas and EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos issued a joint statement declaring the Belarusian presidential "elections" on 26 January as fraudulent.
• Lukashenko responded, saying he "don’t care" whether the West recognises the presidential "elections".

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